Olympics 2024 Soccer Odds & Picks: Friday (8/2)
We're onto the knockout stage of the Olympic men's soccer tournament, and each of the eight remaining teams take the pitch on Friday. Below I'll dive in all four matches from a betting perspective and let you know where I'm laying my money on the pitch.
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Friday’s Best 2024 Paris Olympics Soccer Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Morocco (+130) vs. United States (+220), DRAW (+235) | 2.5 (-110/-115)
The action gets underway bright and early as Morocco takes on the United States. Morocco (2-0-1) won Group B, while the United States (2-0-1) finished in the runner-up spot in Group A. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00 a.m. ET from Parc des Princes in Paris, France.
Typically, I like to look at Unders when the stakes start to increase. However, the six combined games that these countries have played during the Olympics have all seen at least three goals. For Morocco, it was beating Argentina 2-1 and Iraq 3-0, while losing 2-1 to Ukraine. As for the USA, they lost their opener 3-0 to France, before bouncing back with wins against New Zealand (4-1) and Guinea (3-0). If it ain't broke, don't fix it - give me the Over 2.5 goals.
What's most impressive to me right now is the way the United States' offense is clicking. They've racked up seven goals in their last two matches, getting scoring contributions from five different players. The Stars and Stripes are finding their groove, and I think the offensive onslaught will continue against a Morocco defense that conceded three times in the group stage.
Bet: Over 2.5 (-110)
Japan (+270) vs. Spain (+115), DRAW (+225) | 2.5 (+125/-160)
The jam-packed day of soccer continues as Japan squares off against Spain. Having finished the 2020 games with a silver medal, Spain (2-0-1) will be looking to make a run out of Group C, where they placed second. Japan (3-0-0), the 2020 hosts, won Group D with a perfect record. Kickoff is set for 11:00 a.m. ET from Groupama Stadium in Lyon, France.
Maybe I have the wrong read, but I feel like there's a chance that Spain is only priced as a huge favorite because of their name recognition. They're -200 to advance, and I'm just not sure that's an accurate price. La Roja didn't have a very dominant group stage, taking care of Uzbekistan (2-1) and the Dominican Republic (3-1), before losing to Egypt (2-1). I'm just not ready to lay a massive price on a team that cruised past two subpar soccer countries, before suffering a loss.
Meanwhile, Japan looked very sharp in the group stage, going 3-0-0 with a +7 goal differential. They didn't concede a single goal over the three contests. This team is also an impressive 7-1-0 in their last eight matches against all competitions. That includes a 2-0 win against the USA and a 1-1 draw with France. They've stepped up against tough competition and are in excellent form, so I'll take the 0.5 goals with the Asian nation.
Bet: Japan +0.5 (-140)
Egypt (+185) vs. Paraguay (+155), DRAW (+230) | 2.5 (+110/-145)
The other Group C/Group D quarterfinal match pits Egypt against Paraguay. The African nation (2-1-0) cruised to a Group C title, while Paraguay (2-0-1) earned runner-up honors in Group D. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Orange Vélodrome in Marseille, France.
It's roughly a coin flip for who advances in this match. Egypt sits at -105 to move to the semifinal round, while Paraguay is a slim -120 favorite. I actually think Egypt should be the favorite to advance, so I'll play them at -105. Looking back at their schedule, they're unbeaten in their last 11 matches (7-4-0). That includes the big 2-1 victory over Spain in the group stage, where they amassed 21 shots (10 on target) against the soccer powerhouse.
As for Paraguay, they took care of business in their final two group stage matches, beating Israel (4-2) and Mali (1-0), more recently. However, the South American nation endured a seven-match winless streak (0-1-6) prior to those two wins! This is a team that's not in good form, and, as I said about Spain's victories earlier, it's not like their victories came against top-tier competition. Egypt is sharp, and they've allowed just four goals in their last six matches. I think they'll grind this game out and find a way to advance.
Bet: Egypt To Advance (-105)
France (+105) vs. Argentina (+290), DRAW (+225) | 2.5 (-140)
The hosts took care of business in the group stage, going a perfect 3-0-0 en route to the group title. They'll take on Argentina in the quarterfinal round, and the South American nation went 2-0-1 in the group stage, finishing second behind Morocco. This is the soccer nightcap on Friday, and kickoff is scheduled for 3:00 p.m. ET from Matmut Atlantique in Bordeaux, France.
I'm taking it to the prop sheet for Friday's finale in Bordeaux. I'm riding with the Both Teams to Score (BTTS) prop at -120. France had no issues in the group stage, going 3-0-0 while outscoring their opponents 7-0. With a whole country standing behind them, I think they'll score with ease. All seven goals have come from different players, so it's safe to say they are pretty deep offensively.
While France didn't concede in the group stage, they weren't exactly playing world-class competition. This will easily be their biggest test up to this point, and I expect Argentina to find the back of the net at least once. The White and Sky Blue have scored at least once in all three of their Olympic matches, including netting five goals in their final matches against Iraq (3-1) and Ukraine (2-0). Let's take a shot with the BTTS prop on Friday afternoon.
Bet: Both Teams To Score (-120)