Oregon State vs. Colorado: PAC 12 Conference Championship Betting Preview
We’ve got an unexpected matchup in the PAC 12 Championship final, as the fifth-seeded Oregon State Beavers will pursue their first NCAA Tournament bid since 2016 against the third-seeded Colorado Buffaloes, who are safely in the NCAA field.
The Beavers advanced to the final by knocking off the tournament favorite, Oregon, while Colorado edged out USC to make it to the PAC 12 Tournament final for the first time since 2012.
The Buffaloes enter Saturday’s nightcap as a big favorite. But are oddsmakers discounting the scrappy Beavers?
FREE Bracket Optimizer: Create a winning bracket in seconds >>
(5) Oregon State Beavers vs. (3) Colorado Buffaloes, 10:30 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Colorado -455, Oregon State +350
Spread: Colorado -9
Total: 131.5
Arena: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
TV: ESPN
Previous Meeting: Feb. 20, 2021, Colorado, 61-57
Betting Preview: Oregon State Beavers (16-12 SU, 17-9-1 ATS, 16-11 O/U)
Oregon State’s 11-point victory over Oregon stunned fans on Friday, as the Beavers had lost to them by 13 points in their regular-season finale.
Aside from that loss to the Ducks, the Beavers have played well as of late, as they’ve won five of their last six. Oregon State has played better on both sides of the ball recently. In the team’s last 10 games, they rank 62nd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 98th in adjusted defensive efficiency, per Torvik.
Offensively, the Beavers rank 78th on the season in adjusted offensive efficiency and play at a very slow tempo. They make 34.4% of their 3-point shots, but they only hit 46.7% of their shots from inside the arc. Oregon State’s greatest strength offensively is its proficiency at the free-throw line. The Beavers shoot 76.3% from the charity stripe.
Defensively, it’s a similar story for OSU. The Beavers are stingy from 3-point range, but they can’t defend the interior. They allow teams to shoot over 52% from inside the arc and send opponents to the free-throw line at an alarming rate.
The Beavers are a pretty deep team, with nine players averaging at least 10 minutes per game. Their offense is led by a guard duo featuring senior Ethan Thompson, who leads the team with 15.6 points per game, and sophomore Jarod Lucas, who averages 12.9 points per game.
Oregon State could have issues on the glass with the Buffaloes. The Beavers allow an offensive rebound on almost 30% of their possessions, while Colorado pulls down offensive boards on 30.6% of its possessions.
Betting Preview: Colorado Buffaloes (22-7 SU, 17-12 ATS, 11-18 O/U)
The Buffs are a bit of a sleeping giant, at least according to the analytics. Colorado ranks 17th on KenPom and 15th on Torvik.
Colorado is a strong team on both ends of the floor, ranking 16th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 24th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Buffs hit 36.9% of their 3-point attempts and are the best free-throw shooting team in the country.
Defensively, Colorado ranks 54th in the country with an effective field goal percentage of 47.4%. They’re particularly stingy inside the arc, where they allow teams to shoot just 46.3%.
Colorado is a veteran team with seven upperclassmen getting the vast majority of the minutes. Guard McKinley Wright IV is the do-it-all man for the Buffs, averaging 15.4 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 5.6 assists per game. Forwards Jeriah Horne and Evan Battey man the frontcourt, and both average double figures in scoring.
Visitor vs. Home Betting Trends
- Colorado is 16-8 ATS as a favorite.
- Oregon State is 12-5 ATS as an underdog.
Against the Spread Pick
Oregon State has had an impressive run, but it should come to an end against the stingy Buffs. Oregon State’s only chance to stay in this game is if they hit their 3-pointers. However, the Beavers struggled from downtown in both games against Colorado, as they shot 10-of-38 from deep.
Laying nine points in a conference tournament final is always risky. But this is a bad matchup for Oregon State. Even if Colorado has an off-night shooting-wise, they’re good enough on the glass to garner plenty of second-chance opportunities.
Over/Under Pick
Given how bad of a matchup this is for Oregon State, I’d lean with the under in this conference tournament final.
Win prizes playing our free March Madness Bracket Contest >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you're new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section - including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners - or head to more advanced strategy - like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread - to learn more.
Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.