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Outback Bowl: Ole Miss vs. Indiana Odds & Game Pick (2021)

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Saturday’s early bowl game action features a highly anticipated matchup between the SEC and Big Ten Conferences in the Outback Bowl. Two programs on the rise in Ole Miss and Indiana will both be looking to head into the offseason with momentum when they collide in Tampa as part of a loaded New Year’s Weekend slate. The betting odds are in favor of Indiana ahead of this contest.

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Details

  • Opening Lines: Indiana -7; O/U 66.5
  • Current ATS Line: Indiana -8.5
  • Current Over/Under: 65
  • Location: Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL
  • Date: Saturday, Jan. 2, 2021
  • Start Time: 12:30 p.m. EST
  • Television: ABC
  • Last Meeting: Ole Miss and Indiana have not faced each other in football dating back to 1995.

Overview

Lane Kiffin has already started to turn Ole Miss football around. After landing a top-20 recruiting class this fall, the Rebels can really send a message with a win in the Outback Bowl against formidable competition from the Big Ten. The key for Ole Miss figures to be the quarterback play. While Matt Corral has incredible athleticism and playmaking abilities, he has also struggled with turnovers this season. Anything similar to his six turnovers in the regular-season finale against LSU would probably lead to a John Rhys Plumlee sighting.

The Rebels averaged over 40 points per game this season, thanks to a litter of star players on the offensive side of the ball. Unfortunately, the opt-out decisions of wideout Elijah Moore and tight end Kenny Yeboah — along with the injury concerns surrounding running back Jerrion Ealy and receiver Braylon Sanders — might leave the Rebels somewhat shorthanded.

Indiana only lost one game all season, which came against the College Football Playoff-bound Ohio State. Tom Allen’s team fared just fine down the stretch, even with transfer Jack Tuttle filling in under center following a season-ending injury to starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr. The Hoosiers have played opportunistic defense all year, finishing second in the country with a per-game turnover margin of +1.4. Given Corral’s aforementioned turnover struggles, the Outback Bowl could present a nice matchup for IU in that regard. Running back Stevie Scott and the rest of the backfield figure to be licking their chops going against a Rebels defense that comes in allowing 211 rushing yards per game (5.4 yards per carry).

Trends

  1. Ole Miss 2020 Betting Trends: 4-5 ATS; 6-3 to the Over
  2. Indiana 2020 Betting Trends: 7-0 ATS; 4-3 to the Over
  3. Ole Miss is 11-2 outright and 10-2-1 ATS in bowl games since 1992.
  4. Indiana has not won a bowl game since 1991, going 0-5 outright and 2-3 ATS in their five games since.
  5. The Over has hit in 14 of the last 19 editions of the Outback Bowl.

Line Movement 

*Line movement analysis based on the DonBest Las Vegas betting market ticker*

The point spread for this game steamed up from the opening line of Indiana -7. It was as high as a full nine points in the middle of the week. Sharp buyback began on New Year’s Eve, as the line has come back down to Indiana -8.5, with most of the Las Vegas market already at -8 at the time of writing.

While the over/under line hasn’t moved far on this game, it’s certainly interesting to see any total in a game involving Ole Miss come down. The opening number of 66.5 has dropped down a point and a half to the current 65. Combined, the two teams have averaged over 70 points per game this season. Given the personnel issues on the Rebels — and Indiana’s stout defense — the move makes sense.

Prediction

I believe that the SEC is the deepest and best conference in all of college football. As a result, my initial lean when looking at any bowl games involving SEC teams is to go in that direction. Although Ole Miss is battling injuries, opt-outs, and the virus ahead of the Outback Bowl, I believe that the Rebels are on the right side.

Watching Ole Miss throughout the year, it’s fair to wonder if they’ll be able to stop Indiana, even with a backup quarterback. That said, I’m not sure anyone can slow down Lane Kiffin’s offense, no matter who suits up. It’s worth noting that the Rebels were without both Elijah Moore and Kenny Yeboah for their final regular-season game, yet they still scored 48 points.

New names may have to step up, but Ole Miss is plenty capable of staying within a touchdown if Matt Corral protects the ball. Look for more sharp play on the Rebels to further drop this line before kickoff after the initial steam went in the other direction.

Pick: Ole Miss +8.5 (-112 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.