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Packers vs. 49ers NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 12)

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Introducing the Week 12 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 12 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Packers vs. 49ers.

Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 12 Betting Primer>>

San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers

Sides

  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games against teams with winning records.
  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 13 home games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in 16 of the 49ers’ last 22 games.
  • San Francisco is 14-7 ATS when they score 23-plus points since the start of 2023.
  • The 49ers were the most overrated team at home in 2023 ATS, going 3-7, which was fourth worst in the NFL in 2023.
  • So far, in 2024, they are 3-3 ATS at home. They covered against the Patriots/Jets/Cowboys, not against Arizona/Kansas City/Seattle.
  • The 49ers have covered the spread thrice in their last 13 home games.
  • The 49ers are 9-10 ATS as road favorites in their last 19 games.
  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in their last nine games following a win.
  • The 49ers have been the first to 20 points in their last 17 games against NFC West opponents.
  • The Packers have been the first to 15 points in their last eight games as underdogs.
  • The Packers have covered the spread in eight of their last 14 games.
  • Since 2023, the Packers have been 14-2 when they allowed fewer than 23 points on defense and 11-5 ATS. Green Bay is 4-9 ATS when they allowed more than 23 points on defense.
  • The 49ers have a 22.75 implied team total.
  • Green Bay is 2-8 as a road favorite ATS (sub-25%) and 11-10 on the money line.
  • The Packers have covered the spread in the last six of their last seven games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Packers have won five of their last six games.

Totals

  • Seven of the 49ers’ last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The 49ers are 3-3 toward the over at home, averaging under 48 points per game.
  • Nine of the 49ers’ last 12 games against NFC West opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Packers are 18-11 toward the over since the start of 2023.
  • Eleven of the Packers' last 18 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • From Week 1-10 of the 2023 season (before Jordan Love took a major step in his progression), the Packers' first half-point totals were 10, 23, 14, 10, 10, 23, 23, 7, 27, 10, 19 and 20. In his first game back from injury, they struggled to score points in the first half. They scored 10 first-half points in Week 5, 24 first-half points in Week 6, 14 in Week 7, 13 in Week 8, 3 in Week 9, and 7 in Week 11.
  • Eight of the Packers' last 14 games against NFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Green Bay is 2-3 O/U this season at home, averaging 43.4 points per game.

Overall:

Can the 49ers bounce back? The team seems to be on its final breath, clinging to any chance at a late-season postseason run.

San Francisco has been far from the elite team it was in 2023, and this is reflected in its record overall and ATS.

The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games against teams with winning records. Although they have been favored to win every game this season, they are just 5-5.

And now they find themselves in an unfamiliar position, as underdogs for the first time all season. Per BetMGM, this is only the second time Brock Purdy has been an underdog in 34 games.

They didn’t cover (although it was the game that Purdy got injured).

Regardless, this is the market’s way of finally catching up to how the Fraudy Niners have played this season.

And even though the Packers escaped last week with a win in a game they should have lost, it’s not enough to push the market back in favor of San Fran.

We are seeing the 49ers Super Bowl hangover play out before our eyes, and I don’t want to be caught on the wrong side of it.

The Packers had the 49ers last year in the playoffs despite being 10-point underdogs on the road.

I’d feel so much better about Green Bay had they played better against Chicago on the road or if they boasted a better record ATS at home (50% ATS).

But the Packers are just enough in the green regarding winning at home (12-8) and as home favorites (8-7) that push me toward the Packers.

The 49ers are dealing with injuries to both Brock Purdy and Nick Bosa. If they can’t pressure Jordan Love, he should be effective. And with Purdy's status unknown, more money has come in on the Packers.

According to Next Gen Stats, the 49ers defense has allowed the third-fewest yards per attempt (5.1) and the fifth-lowest completion percentage (45.7%) when pressuring opposing quarterbacks this season. Opposing passers have thrown past the sticks on 52.2% of their total attempts under pressure against the 49ers, the second-highest rate in the NFL.

Love has averaged a league-high 9.5 yards per attempt when facing four or fewer pass rushers this season, one full yard more than the next closest quarterback (Jared Goff, 8.5).

Love has been effective in part due to how infrequently he has been pressured – he has faced quick pressure (under 2.5 seconds) on a league-low 5.5% of dropbacks vs. four-or-fewer rushers. Against the blitz, Love has been far less efficient has he has averaged just 5.2 yards per attempt, the 3rd-fewest in the NFL. The 4.3 yard drop off in his yards per attempt average when blitzed compared to when not blitzed is the largest decrease in the NFL.

Per Next Gen Stats, the 49ers defense has utilized a four-man pass rush on a league-high 80.6% of dropbacks this season. They have generated pressure just 1.3% more often when blitzing (35.5%) than when not blitzing (34.2%), the third-smallest increase in the NFL.

Love has recorded a 43.8% completion percentage and a -8.4% completion percentage over expected on passes under pressure this season, which rank 2nd-lowest in the NFL (G. Minshew).

Love has pushed the ball downfield when pressured, averaging the 6th-most air yards per attempt (11.9). Though he has struggled to complete passes, Love has been sacked on 9.8% of his pressured dropbacks, the 2nd-lowest rate in the NFL. In Week 11 against the Bears, Love completed every one of his three passes under pressure for 72 yards.

Ultimately, I think the Packers will win here, but my favorite bet is likely on the under.

Neither team is playing their best football, as indicated by both teams coming off two straight unders and failed covers.

Green Bay’s defense is underrated – top-12 in fewest points, yards, and EPA allowed – and the 49ers offense has lost all but one game when they have scored 24 or fewer points.

SF’s red-zone offense has been a nightmare 26th (although just slightly better than the Packers’ 27th ranking).

Twenty-four points for the 49ers seems like the key number, given they likely win if they hit it. Only one team has scored more than 24 points against the Packers at home this season (Vikings).

If you combine Packers ML and 49ers under 24.5, you can get it at plus money (+115). You can also get +124 if you take Packers -3 instead of the ML.

Props

Jauan Jennings leads the NFL with 3.5 yards per route run when aligned in the slot this season despite have faced press coverage on 31.2% of his slot routes, the 2nd-highest rate among wide receivers with at least 50 slot routes and more than double the NFL average (14.8%).

Jennings has caught 23 of 30 targets for 321 yards and two touchdowns when aligned in the slot, including +103 receiving yards over expected, the 4th-most in the NFL.

Green Bay leads the NFL in the highest percentage of fantasy points allowed to the slot this season.

According to Next Gen Stats, George Kittle has caught 18 of 20 targets for 230 yards and a touchdown when the nearest defender in coverage is a linebacker this season, the 4th-most yards in the NFL.

Linebackers have been the nearest defender in coverage on 26.5% of the Packers total targets faced this season, the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL, trailing only the Bears (26.8%). Packers linebackers have allowed 591 yards in coverage this season, the 8th-most in the NFL.

Kittle has surpassed 45.5 receiving yards in five straight games.

My Picks

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