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Packers vs. Broncos: NFL Week 7 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets

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I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering - I know that I am for the first time now that my state has legalized wagering - this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Packers vs. Broncos.

NFL Betting Primer: Packers vs. Broncos

Denver Broncos (DEN) vs. Green Bay Packers (GB) – Broncos (+1)

Why did the Chiefs struggle against the Broncos defense? Well, besides the fact that it was a weird Thursday night game between divisional rivals, I think it's more related to the lack of big-play upside on the Chiefs offense. Because big plays are what have killed the Broncos defense this season.

They are tied for second in explosive pass plays allowed per game this season.

https://twitter.com/arjunmenon100/status/1714282218435305478

KC offense has struggled to generate massive, big plays with their current personnel. But I hardly think that will be the case with Green Bay's offense, which is dying to hit splash plays downfield between Jordan Love and Christian Watson

Watson's aDOT in Week 5 before the bye week was an absurd 26.7 yards downfield. Love ranks 4th in deep-ball pass rate this season but has completed just 25% of those throws (4th-lowest). I'd bet this team cashes in on regression in the form of big downfield plays against a beatable defense.

I also expect Love to be kept upright, more so than he has been the last few weeks. The Broncos rank 31st in pressure rate generated. 7 of Love's 8 TDs have come from a clean pocket this season.

Given the bye week, this team should also be much healthier across the offensive line between Zach Tom and Jon Runyan, along with the secondary between Rudy Ford and Jaire Alexander.

This will present challenges for Russell Wilson. The Packers defense has allowed just one passing TD per game to opposing QBs (the 5th-lowest percentage of passing TDs faced) and fewer than 250 passing yards. Only one QB has scored more than 20-plus fantasy points against them, and it took Desmond Ridder earning a rushing touchdown to get there.

Wilson's "hot streak" came to an end on Thursday night from an efficiency standpoint, and I am afraid that trend is going to continue.

So as always, fade the overrated Broncos. 0-6 versus the spread. 1-5 straight up, with their only win coming against a Bears team in a game they should have lost.

Wilson is a combined 11-23 in his last 34 games.

The only way I can see the Broncos putting up a legitimate fight here is through their ground game. The Packers run defense is bad - 26th in run defense DVOA - but a strong run game doesn't always translate into a ton of real-life points.

Take the Packers on the ML.

As for the total, Denver has been one of the over-machines this season. The Broncos went over its projected total in four straight games with all games eclipsing at least 52 points before last Thursday night's game. Since Nathaniel Hackett was fired at the end of 2022, Denver is 6-2 toward the over, with the Broncos averaging nearly 25 points per game on offense. The Packers are 3-2 toward the over this season (2-1 on the road).

On a slate where there are unders as far as the eyes can see, I actually do like the over in this particular spot. Both defenses rank inside the top-7 in explosive plays allowed per game through both the pass game and the run game.

For props, take the layup with Christian Watson at 49.5 receiving yards. Watson's aDOT in Week 5 before the bye week was an absurd 26.7 yards downfield. Watson and Luke Musgrave tied for the team lead with 7 targets a piece (24% Target share). Musgrave caught 6 for 34 yards, while Watson flashed his big-play upside with a 77-yard grab on one of his 3 catches with an absurd 177 air yards, 73% air-yard share).

Love ranks 4th in deep-ball pass rate this season but has completed just 25% of those throws (4th-lowest). I'd bet this team cashes in on regression in the form of big downfield plays against a beatable defense.

Also love the over on Musgrave. He's gone OVER 33.5 receiving yards in 3 of his healthy 4 games played this season. No team has allowed more catches or yards to tight ends than the Broncos.

For the Broncos, we are going back to the under on Courtland Sutton. Hit last Thursday night and I expect the trend to continue. The Packers rank 5th in the fewest fantasy pts per game allowed to perimeter WRs this season. 5th fewest receiving yards allowed per game to WRs. Sutton has been under 48.5 receiving yards in 4 of 6 games this year including his last 3 games played.

At the same time, you want to be on the over for Javonte Williams' rushing yardage. He's been 42-plus in all his games played this year and the matchup is divine.

My Picks:

  • Packers ML (-115 BetMGM)
  • Over 45 (-110 DraftKings)

My Props:

What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.


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