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Packers vs. Cardinals NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 6)

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Introducing the Week 6 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 6 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Packers vs. Cardinals.

Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 6 Betting Primer>>

Arizona Cardinals @ Green Bay Packers

Sides:

  • Green Bay is 10-7 at home in its last 17 home games, 9-8 ATS, but just 40% ATS over its last 14 home games.
  • GB as a favorite: 7-14-1 ATS
  • The Packers have covered the spread in seven of their last nine games.
  • The Packers have won each of their last 11 of their last 12 home games following a road win.
  • Since 2023, the Packers have been 11-2 when they allowed fewer than 23 points on defense and 10-3 ATS. Green Bay was 4-7 ATS when they allowed more than 23 points on defense.
  • The Cardinals have a 21-point implied team total.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in five of their last seven games.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in five of their last six road games.
  • Arizona is 8-5 ATS in their last 13 games.
  • The underdogs have won five of the Packers’ last six games at Lambeau Field.

Totals:

  • The Packers are 16-8 toward the over since the start of 2023.
  • Ten of the Packers' last 13 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • From Week 1-10 of the 2023 season (before Jordan Love took a major step in his progression), the Packers' first half-point totals were 10, 23, 14, 10, 10, 23, 23, 7, 27, 10, 19 and 20. In his first game back from injury, they struggled to score points in the first half.
  • Eight of the Packers' last 10 games against NFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line. They scored 10 first-half points in Week 5.
  • The Packers have scored first in six of their last seven games.
  • The Cardinals have been an under-machine since the start of 2023 on the road (3-6-1).
  • Each of the last four games between the Cardinals and Packers has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • These teams are a combined 6-4 toward the over this season.

Overall:

Per Next Gen Stats, the Packers have recorded the fifth-most rushing yards over expected (+151) thus far this season, with newly acquired running back Josh Jacobs leading the way with 19 missed tackles forced on runs, fifth-most in the NFL.

Opposing offenses have been expected to gain 657 rushing yards against the Cardinals’ defense this season, the 5th-most in the NFL.

The Cardinals defense has also generated pressure on just 25.3% of opposing dropbacks this season, the 2nd-lowest rate in the NFL.

Needless to say, there are multiple ways the Packers offense finds success in Jordan Love's third game back from his injury.

Run or pass, the Packers will be effective against Arizona. But I think they might run the ball more than most will expect. In the last two weeks, the Packers have had -an 11% pass rate over expectation. I liked the under last week because I figured the team would feed Josh Jacobs, and that played a part in the game going under the total (the Dontayvion Wicks drops also helped).

Arizona showed last week that they will not go away quietly. This team under Jonathan Gannon has constantly hung around games as road underdogs, going 5-1 ATS in their last six road contests. Meanwhile, the Packers have been a bit shaky covering home spreads as favorites.

Matchup wise, I think Arizona comes in clean here. Green Bay is bad at defending short passes, so I'd expect Kyler Murray to be efficient passing underneath to his tight end, Trey McBride. James Conner should be able to find some running room. The Packers’ run defense is nothing overly special (9th-worst in EPA/rush attempt faced).

It's a solid spot for the Cardinals offense. But enough to help drive this game over 47.5 points seems aggressive. If anything, what breaks this game wide open is if Murray scrambles for a big yardage.

Still, I lean on some of the more dominant running games taking center stage than an old-fashioned shootout between Murray and Love. I also can't get it out of mind that the Cardinals’ defense has had some strong moments this season, shutting out both the Lions and 49ers in the second halves of their respective games.

Props:

Kyler Murray has rushed for at least 45 yards in four of five games this season. He has gone OVER his rushing yards prop in all four games the Cardinals have been underdogs this season.

Jayden Reed has over 75 receiving yards in all three games that Jordan Love has started this season. The Cardinals have allowed at least 75 receiving yards to a player in each of the last three games.

My Picks

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