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Packers vs. Colts NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 2)

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Introducing the Week 2 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 2 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Packers and Colts.

Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 2 Betting Primer>>

Green Bay Packers vs. Indianapolis Colts (-3)

Sides:

  • The favorites have won each of the Colts' last 13 games.
  • The Colts were 6-0 as favorites in 2023.
  • The Packers have won each of their last 11 home openers.
  • The Packers have covered the spread in four of their last five games.
  • The Packers are 11-7 ATS as underdogs in their last 18 games played.
  • The 2023 Packers were 8-2 when they allowed fewer than 23 points on defense, 7-3 ATS.
  • Green Bay was 4-6 ATS when they allowed more than 23 points. The Colts have a 22-point implied team total.

Totals:

  • Each of the Colts’ last four games as favorites has gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Packers are 12-8 toward the over since the start of 2023.
  • From Week 10 of the 2023 season, the Packers' first half-point totals: 10, 23, 14, 10, 10, 23, 23, 7, 27, 10, and 19.
  • Eight of the Packers' last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

What was expected to be an exciting matchup between Anthony Richardson and Jordan Love has taken a disappointing turn for NFL fans and bettors. With the Packers’ star QB sidelined due to injury, Malik Willis is now likely to step in as the starter for Green Bay, altering the anticipated showdown.

If there was a way to bet on the UNDER of total completions combined between the two QBs (maybe there is) that would be the bet to make.

Willis is not a polished passer, and I expect him to struggle against the Colts’ heavy Cover 3 scheme. Willis joined the Packers on August 26th in a trade for a 7th-round pick.

The Colts defense is going to force Willis to find the open man and that's not a recipe for success. The heavy zone scheme might also limit Willis' ability to scramble. But the biggest issue for Willis might be his propensity to hold onto the ball and take sacks. Sacks are drive killers. We saw it in the final two plays of last week's game. Willis didn't even get off a final throw because he took a sack. In 2023, in limited action, he led the NFL in pressure-to-sack rate. In six games in 2022, Willis completed 51% of his passes (dead last) while ranking bottom-10 in pressure-to-sack rate (26%).

As much as I'd like to believe Matt LaFleur can "coach" up Willis, I am skeptical it will happen this quickly. In Weeks 1-9 last year, the Packers had the worst first-half offense in the NFL. LaFleur is a great NFL head coach, not a miracle worker.

Take the Colts as favorites (like we always do) and their ground game that should run wild versus the Packers defense, which allowed over 100 rushing yards last week to the Eagles. Note that Indianapolis ranked -11.1% in pass rate over expectation in Week 1 (third).

For the total, this is an UNDER play. The Colts were an over machine at home last season (and the game total over his last week at home), but it was a different story on the road. This game will fly under if Anthony Richardson doesn't connect on two or three big explosive plays. Not to mention, GB will likely deploy a run-heavy game plan with Josh Jacobs against the Colts’ defense that allowed Joe Mixon to run wild in Week 1. Two run-heavy teams with inaccurate QBs? Bet the full game under and the first half under. Only once has a Richardson-led offense scored more than 10 points in the first half (five starts) with seven or fewer points in three of those contests.

I usually don’t recommend specific same-game parlays, but the Colts ML, first half under, and total game under has me salivating.

Props:

  • The quarterback play in Green Bay will be a struggle. Take the under on these Packers WRs, specifically with Romeo Doubs. His 2.5 receptions prop is at plus money.
  • Jordan Love threw for 182 yards or fewer in three of his first six starts last season. Expect Malik Willis to underwhelm as a passer with virtually no time to learn the offense or build chemistry with his receivers.

My Picks:

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