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Packers vs. Vikings NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 4)

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Introducing the Week 4 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 4 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Packers vs. Vikings.

Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 4 Betting Primer>>

Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings

Sides:

  • The Packers have won each of their last 11 home games following a road win.
  • The Packers have been the first to 15 points in each of their last eight games.
  • The Packers have won the first quarter in 11 of their last 12 games.
  • Green Bay is 10-6 at home in their last 16 home games (63%) and 9-7 ATS (56%). But over their last 13 home games, they’re just 42% ATS.
  • GB as a favorite: 6-13-1 ATS (32%).
  • The Packers have covered the spread in six of their last seven games.
  • Since 2023, the Packers have been 10-2 when they allowed fewer than 23 points on defense and 9-3 ATS. Green Bay was 4-6 ATS when they allowed more than 23 points on defense.
  • Minnesota has a 20-point implied team total.
  • The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games against NFC North opponents.
  • They are 50% ATS (4-4-1) in their last nine games as road underdogs.
  • The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in four of their last six games as underdogs.
  • The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in six of their last nine games. They are 3-0 ATS this season under Sam Darnold.
  • All but five of the Vikings' last 17 games played have been decided by eight points or less (77%).

Totals:

  • Each of the Vikings’ last three games has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Four of the Vikings' last six games as underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Four of the Vikings' last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Vikings are 3-0 toward the under this season.
  • The Packers are 14-8 toward the over since the start of 2023.
  • From Weeks 1-10 of the 2023 season (before Jordan Love took a major step in his progression), the Packers' first half-point totals were 10, 23, 14, 10, 10, 23, 23, 7, 27, 10, 19, and 20.
  • Green Bay has averaged 15 points in the first half in Malik Willis' first two starts this season.
  • Nine of the Packers' last 11 games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

Jordan Love will be a likely game-time decision for Week 4 after a two-week hiatus. His potential return comes at a near perfect time, with an NFC North showdown on the docket.

When these two teams faced off last season, the Vikings were 1.5-point favorites in both spots. The road team won in both matchups last season. Both games went UNDER the total. 34 points were scored in Green Bay and 43 points were scored in Minnesota.

Love was flawless in the second matchup (3 TDs and 250-plus passing yards) while Aaron Jones rushed for 120 yards.

Packers head coach Matt LaFleur has been an absolute wizard offensively as coach so far this season. With Love (hopefully) back against a familiar opponent, they take care of business.

How will the Vikings offense respond if they aren't operating as frontrunners? That's been the case for the last three weeks. They've been able to build leads and function at a high level on offense.

But this Packers team has been one of the highest-scoring teams early in games since the middle of last season.

And they have been one of the best DEFENSES in forcing opposing quarterbacks into mistakes. For three straight weeks, the QB they have faced has finished first in turnover-worthy play rate.

Quarterback Sam Darnold might not be as perfect as he's been through the first three weeks of the season even with WR Jordan Addison making his return to the lineup.

But it won't just be on Darnold for them to move offensively. I think it's an Aaron Jones revenge game that matters. The Packers didn't want him back, and he's been on a hot streak ever since.

Kevin O'Connell would be wise to attack the Packers' biggest weakness against the run with his ultra-motivated running back and save Darnold from making a bone-headed mistake.

Still, I'm on the Packers’ side here under the impression that Love plays. Also, lean toward the over in that scenario.

But if we get news Malik Willis is starting, I am shifting heavily toward the under on the game total.

Player Props:

We nailed the "over" on Stefon Diggs' receptions in this exact same spot last week. Rinse and repeat, but this time with Jayden Reed. Again, in a matchup against the blitz-heavy Vikings in Week 4, I'd expect Reed to be heavily involved as the Packers' quick outlet. In two games against Minnesota last season, Reed averaged 80-plus receiving yards with five catches per contest.

Against the Vikings last season, Tucker Kraft hauled in six catches for 48 yards. Like the move on Reed, quick-short passes will be in high demand in this matchup. I expect the Packers TE1 to play a major role.

As alluded to earlier, Jordan Addison will return to the lineup for the Minnesota Vikings. I like the over on his receiving yards. His BettingPros projections have him over 43.5 yards. He should see favorable looks in this spot if Green Bay uses Jaire Alexander in shadow coverage against Justin Jefferson. And if they don't … Addison showed last season that he can more than manage. He went a perfect 5-for-5 for 52 yards while Alexander covered him last season. Addison went over 43.5 receiving in over half his games last season with Jefferson healthy.

My Picks:

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