Pala Casino 400: NASCAR Best Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)
Some memories don’t fade with time, specifically those of old dogs, cold beer or damn good race tracks.
It’s a bittersweet weekend for race fans and gamblers as NASCAR says goodbye to Auto Club Speedway as we know it. The two-mile asphalt track, roughly 50 miles due east of Los Angeles, will host its final NASCAR race before being reconfigured into a short track, potentially returning to the sport by 2025.
The high-tire wear and multiple lines of Fontana have helped bring new fans to the sport and captivate pre-existing ones. And while it’s a bitter-sweet cross-country trek for race teams this week, it’s a chance for us gamblers to get back on track.
Daytona’s warned-about volatility hit us in full force last week. Our Jimmie Johnson top-10 ticket was cashing at the 200-lap mark of the race but couldn’t sustain the first overtime wreck. Our Bubba Wallace top-5 finish was true until the final corner when Wallace was narrowly collected in the last-lap race crash that handed Ricky Stenhouse Jr. the victory.
Auto Club brings us shorter odds, matched with more predictability. Although Mother Nature may prevent practice and qualifying, we have a diverse data set to consider. In addition to drivers’ track history and recent performance, we’re pulling data from other high-tire wear tracks run in 2022. This includes Auto Club, Darlington (twice) and Homestead.
Additionally, Brian Murphy of Stewart-Hass Racing drew comparisons of Auto Club to Michigan this week on the “NASCAR Betting Preview Show.†So we’ll slightly factor that in as we take one last ride at the current Auto Club.
2023 Pala Casino 400: NASCAR Best Odds, Bets & Picks
All bet recommendations are for 1u.
Top 5: Joey Logano (+200 via Barstool Sportsbook)
Winning the first Bluegreen Vacation Duels last week and placing second in the Daytona 500, Joey Logano has arguably had the most-consistent Ford on the circuit this season. He heads to California, coming off a top-5 finish here last season. It was his seventh such feat in 15 races, giving Logano a staggering 46% top-5 finish rate here.
In addition to Logano’s high finish, he ranked third in total speed ranking, a measure of a driver’s speed across all segments of the race against the competition, courtesy of ifantasyrace.com. Even more compelling, Logano won comp track Darlington in the spring, finished 4th there in the fall and took home 4th at Michigan.
The only one of our comp tracks he didn’t finish top-5 in was Homestead after Logano had already locked his way into the championship race and had nothing to race for. The final sweetener for those betting on Logano this week is that he would start towards the front if there is no practice and qualifying, perhaps catapulting him to an early lead.
Top 10: Alex Bowman (+100 via Barstool Sportsbook)
Alex Bowman is off to another hot start to begin the season, leading laps and finishing with a top-5 finish in both the Busch Light Clash and 500. He returns to Fontana, having won here in 2020. Although he had a poor finish here last season, he was top-1o in total speed ranking.
“The Showman†also performed well at comp tracks, placing 9th at Michigan and 10th at Darlington in the spring. He wrecked out of the fall Darlington race and sat-out Homestead due to concussions. Chevy was fast here last season, and I expect them to be again, regardless of nose changes.
Top 10: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+275 via Barstool Sportsbook)
In a week where most of the top-10 market left something to be desired, I felt fortunate to find Stnehouse Jr. at this number. Going back to 2016, the Daytona 500 winner’s average finish in the next race is 12.4. Their average finish at Fontana specifically is 10.3.
This trend bodes well for the No. 47 car that finished 10th here last year and led six laps in his prior race at Auto Club. Seeing Stenhouse Jr. had the 8th-best total speed ranking here last season makes me that much more confident he can keep his hot streak going this week.
Matchup: Denny Hamlin (-115) vs. Chase Elliott (-105) via DraftKings Sportsbook
Denny Hamlin is another driver whose finish here last year doesn’t paint the full picture. Toyotas, as a whole, were dealing with a hood issue at Auto Club last year. However, Hamlin still posted a total speed ranking good for 7th. In addition, he had a pair of top-3 finishes at comp tracks and a sound 7th at Homestead.
On the other hand, Chase Elliot ranked 26th in total speed ranking here and fell off quickly after a hot start. He had a top-5 finish at Darlington but had no other notable finishes at comp tracks. Hamlin is 2-0 against Elliot this season and 6-2 at California against him all-time. I’m betting on a clean sweep for the Toyota veteran to begin the season.
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Seth Woolcock is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis with a hint of feel-good lifestyle advice from Seth, check out In-Between Media and follow him @Between_SethFF.