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Panthers vs. Buccaneers: NFL Week 13 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets

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I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Panthers vs. Buccaneers.

NFL Betting Primer: Panthers vs. Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5) vs. Carolina Panthers

The line opened at Buccaneers -6, but some money has come in on the Panthers to push the line to 5.5. No doubt this comes in the wake of the firing of Panthers head coach, Frank Reich, along with other key coaches he hired after becoming the head coach. We've seen plenty of examples of teams rebounding after they fired their head coach - or some other coach scapegoat - so there's some semblance of credibility to it.

Special teams coach Chris Tabor has been appointed as interim head coach, while offensive coordinator Thomas Brown will assume play-calling duties, as he did from Weeks 8-10. The Panthers went 2-1 ATS over that time, while also picking up their lone win of the season.

The move away from Reich might not be ideal for everyone in Carolina. Adam Thielen - from Weeks 8-10 - totaled fewer than 45 receiving yards in 2 of the 3 contests. Thielen has turned back into a pumpkin folks. Start taking the unders. Less than 60.5 receiving yards on Prizepicks might be the lock of Week 13 even if Young is throwing the ball more.

The Buccaneers have covered the spread in four of their last five games, falling just short of +2.5 last week versus the Colts.  The Panthers have lost each of their last six road games.

The Buccaneers' defensive strengths are in their ability to stop the run. 13th in run defense DVOA. But 20th in pass defense DVOA. The Buccaneers’ secondary is a mess, and most if not all QBs have been able to take advantage of it.

Their biggest issue is on third downs. 29th in third down conversion rate. TB's defense is all about bending but not breaking. They stifle offenses near the end zone, boasting the league's second-best red zone defense.

The Panthers are the exact opposite. Dead last in DVOA against the run, but 22nd against the pass. The fourth-best defense on third downs. But 31st in the red zone.

Offensively, the Panthers are 19th in the red zone scoring offense. Also, 20th in the third-down conversions rate.  Tampa is 15th on third downs, while 27th in red zone scoring offense.

I'd like to think that Bryce Young can have some success against a weak secondary, specifically with how bad their defense is defending third downs.

This is an overall bizarre matchup with two teams "strengths" not matching the weaknesses of their opponents. This raises the question of whether or not either team will shake it's own identity to expose a favorable matchup.

The Buccaneers have been pass-happy all year - but that has been more related to the matchup CALLING for pass-heavy game scripts. Their season-long pass rate over expectation is 0%.

But last week, it was -6% against a weaker Colts run defense. 5th-highest rush rate on early downs among teams in Week 12.

Carolina had +5% pass rate over expectation with Thomas Brown calling plays from Weeks 8-10. 4th-highest pass play rate on early downs at 64%. The last 2 weeks when Reich took back play calling? -9% PROE.

Weeks 1-7 before he gave up play calling the first time: -3% PROE. 49% pass play rate on early downs under neutral game script conditions.

Based on these findings, I'm confident both teams will attack their defense's weaknesses, even if it takes them out of what they have traditionally done this season.

That means we should see a heavy run-game approach from the Buccaneers and a pass-heavy approach from the Panthers. Tampa Bay is the ultimate pass funnel, so we should see Bryce Young chuck the ball.

10/11 QBs to play a full game versus Tampa Bay have gone OVER their passing yardage projection. Take over Young's passing yardage totals at 196.5 passing yards.

Correlate with the over on Rachaad White's 57.7 rushing yards prop. Also, add in the Baker Mayfield UNDER his passing yardage prop.

9 of 10 QBs have finished UNDER their passing yardage props when facing the Panthers this season. I prefer the yards versus both the completions and attempts (although the Draft Prop Cheat Sheet likes all the unders).

I lean more towards the props in this game, versus the sides/totals. My confidence stems from what I expect each offense to do, but how efficiently they do so is the major question mark

I still ultimately lean toward the under at 37, but the value is long gone after it opened at 39.5. I got it at 39.

Each of the Panthers’ last five games have gone UNDER the total points line. The Bucs are 1-4 toward the under at home. With an average score of 32 points. And seven of the Buccaneers' last 9 games have gone UNDER the total points line. Last week went over, but that was against the over MACHINE Colts.

As for sides, I ultimately settle on the Buccaneers -5.5 just based on their overall body of work. They have one of the better records ATS this season (64%) and they are at home. But again, more of a shy away spot as the Buccaneers have played mostly close games (-1.4 average scoring margin). Although it should be noted that despite all their losses, they are 2-1 as a favorite and their last 3 wins have been by 10 or more points.

Take all the Miles Sanders unders you can find. He was signed as a veteran free agent by the coaching regime that just got canned. There’s a chance he is barely used at all in the wake of new coaches taking over. And when Thomas Brown (current play caller) was calling plays from Weeks 8-10, Sanders had rushing attempt totals of 2, 6 and 2. The only way this beats us, is if Sanders is made a straight healthy scratch before kickoff.

My Picks:

  • Under 37
  • Buccaneers -5

My Props:

What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.


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