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Panthers vs. Cowboys NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 15)

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Introducing the Week 15 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 15 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Panthers vs. Cowboys.

Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 15 Betting Primer>>

Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers

Sides:

  • The overall favorites have covered the spread in 22 of the Cowboys' last 32 games.
  • The Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 12 games.
  • Dallas is 4-2 on the road this season and ATS.
  • The Cowboys have covered the spread in eight of their last 14 games as home underdogs.
  • The Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine home games.
  • Dallas went 8-1 at home in 2023. They are 1-6 at home this season.
  • The Cowboys have lost the first half in seven of their last eight home games.
  • The Cowboys have lost the first quarter in seven of their last eight games.
  • The Panthers have not covered the spread in 10 of their last 15 games.
  • The Panthers have lost 18 of their last 23 games.
  • The Panthers have lost 18 of their last 21 games against NFC opponents.
  • The Panthers have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 12 games against teams with winning records.

Totals:

  • Ten of the Cowboys' last 15 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Seventeen of the Cowboys' last 27 games have gone OVER the projected total (65%), including the last 16 of 25 games.
  • Games in Dallas have averaged north of 50 points this season (5-2 O/U).
  • Since 2023, Dallas is 13-3 toward the over at home, averaging over 52 points per game.
  • Sixteen of the Cowboys' last 21 home games have gone OVER the total points line per DraftKings Sportsbook.
  • Eight of the Panthers’ last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Panthers’ last 23 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Each of the Panthers' last five games at Bank of America Stadium has gone OVER the total points line (5-1 overall record to the over at 49.3 points per game).
  • Eight of the Panthers’ last 14 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

For the first time in the Bryce Young era, the Carolina Panthers are favorites. The books have never thought he should win a game, but his recent turnaround and matchup against Dallas as his team is laying 2.5 points at home.

And I couldn't agree more. Dallas is flying to the East Coast for a 1 PM game after playing on Monday Night Football.

Carolina has played in three straight games that have gone down to the wire, but they have fallen just shy of victory. But there's a strong case to be made they should have beaten the Chiefs, Buccaneers, and Eagles in consecutive weeks. Even so, they are 5-0 ATS in the past five weeks. 2-0 straight up against teams with losing records.

According to Next Gen Stats, Young has averaged 7.9 yards per attempt and recorded a +4.1% completion percentage over expected when under pressure since reclaiming the starting job in Week 8, a huge jump from his 3.1 yards per attempt and a -12.2% CPOE when under pressure in Weeks 1-2.

The Cowboys’ defense has given up 7.6 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks when under pressure this season, 3rd-most in the NFL.

Give me the Cardiac Cats to win by more than a field goal at home. Dallas is dealing with more injuries, which will be problematic in a short week.

Their defense also won't be able to stop the Chuba Hubbard train (given he seems like the only healthy body left in the Carolina backfield).

That's why I am also going right toward the over on the game total.

Carolina has been the home to overs this season (5-1 O/U) - including five straight; 42.5 points is too small of a number.

Props:

The Panthers have allowed the most TDs to tight ends this season.

According to Next Gen Stats, since returning from injured reserve in Week 12, Adam Thielen has been targeted on 27.2% of his routes with a 12.0% deep route rate.

In contrast, he was targeted on just 17.4% of his routes, with a 21.7% deep route rate in Weeks 1-3 before his injury. Thielen has also recorded +50 receiving yards over expected since Week 12, compared to +3 receiving yards over expected prior to his injury.

Rookie Xavier Legette, who commanded 10 targets (24% and 128 air yards), made a huge catch on the final drive but also dropped a potential touchdown that could have been the game-winner at the end of the drive. The rookie left a lot of production on the table in what has been a very up-and-down season.

Even so, he has 39-plus yards in four straight games, including six-plus targets in three straight.

In the last five weeks, Young ranks fifth in the NFL in red-zone pass attempts per game. He only had three TDs. Every other quarterback has eight or more passing touchdowns.

Young has also been RUNNING more. He has at least 17 rushing yards in four straight games. Dallas ranks second in most rushing yards allowed to QBs this season.

Rico Dowdle will get there as a rusher but not as a receiver. His receiving yards line is set at 19.5 yards, which he has been under in five straight games with Cooper Rush as the QB. He has a negative ADOT of nearly three yards over that span, making it easy for him to lose yardage on his targets.

My Picks:

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