Panthers vs. Falcons NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 6)
Introducing the Week 6 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 6 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Panthers vs. Falcons.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 6 Betting Primer>>
Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers
Sides:
- The Falcons are 5-3 ATS in their last eight home games as underdogs and 9-4 as home favorites on the money line.
- The Falcons are 7-13-2 ATS since the start of 2023. They are better at home, finishing at 7-5 straight up.
- However, the underdogs have won 10 of the Falcons' last 17 games.
- The Falcons are 3-5 ATS on the road, 1-4 ATS as road favorites, and 4-12 ATS on the road straight up.
- Kirk Cousins as a favorite ATS (48%)
- The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games as favorites against NFC opponents.
- The Panthers have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games.
- The Panthers have lost 13 of their last 15 games.
Totals:
- Atlanta is 2-2 towards the over this season at home.
- The Falcons are 2-3 O/U this season.
- Four of the Falcons' last seven home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Ten of the Panthers' last 16 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Eight of the Panthers' last 10 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Overall:
I can't believe I am doing it again. But Terrell Furman has me convinced to back Carolina as this week's "Close Your Eyes Special." For those new to the terminology, it's a betting trend to back a team playing at home after a major blowout the previous week.
But instead of backing the Panthers, I'd rather make this wager AGAINST Kirk Cousins and the Falcons playing in just their second road game of the season.
The Falcons offense is likely getting overinflated love after their insane performance last Thursday night. And even though the matchup is great against a horrible Panthers defense, their route to points might be more on the ground than through the air.
Against Tampa Bay, Atlanta had a +3% pass rate over expectation. From Weeks 1-4, that metric was listed at -6% pass rate over expectation. The Panthers have the second-highest rush rate this season. Going on the road with extra time to prepare, I think we might see more operation ground and pound from the Falcons. Bijan Robinson fantasy football managers? Get ready to rejoice. Fingers crossed, this hamstring injury isn’t a major concern.
The Panthers’ offense came crashing back down to Earth in Chicago. But as I noted last week, Chicago was by far the toughest test they have faced under Andy Dalton.
The Falcons are a much easier test because they can't generate pressure; however, they are still solid at defending the short-quick passing game, which has been Dalton's bread and butter.
If anything, Carolina's best chance is just to continue running behind Chuba Hubbard. They have been horrible defending lightbox fronts (4th-most yards allowed) while using their defense in that formation at the 10th-highest rate in the NFL.
This season, Hubbard leads the NFL in rushes with seven or fewer men in the box. He is also on a four-game streak of going OVER his rushing yards prop.
When I first opened the Week 6 slate, I was baffled by this game's total. I thought it was way too high, and I feel my deep dive into the matchup bolsters that claim. These teams rank 19th and 20th, respectively, in PROE.
I think we see more rushing than points scored with Atlanta failing to live up to their Thursday night absurd expectations. Bet the under at 47 and close your eyes for the special on Panthers +6.5.
Props:
Per Next Gen Stats, Diontae Johnson has totaled team-highs in target share (27.4%) and air yard share (39.8%) for the Panthers this season. Falcons CB A.J. Terrell has allowed 13 receptions for 139 yards on 17 targets this season, the highest completion percentage allowed (76.5%) among cornerbacks with at least 10 targets this season.
My Picks: