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Panthers vs. Saints NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 9)

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Introducing the Week 9 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 9 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Panthers vs. Saints.

Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 9 Betting Primer>>

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers

Sides:

  • The Panthers have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 games.
  • The Panthers have lost 16 of their last 18 games.
  • The Panthers have lost 16 of their last 17 games against NFC opponents.
  • The Saints have covered the spread in five of their last 10 games.
  • The Saints have covered the spread in seven of their last 11 games as road underdogs.
  • Their opponents have scored first in eight of the Saints’ last 11 games against AFC opponents.
  • The Saints have lost five of the last six games.
  • The Saints are 2-6 ATS as home underdogs (7-14 on the money line as underdogs)
  • As home underdogs, the Saints are 1-7 straight up. Woof.
  • The Saints are 2-5 ATS as road favorites (29%).

Totals:

  • Eleven of the Panthers' last 19 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Panthers' last 12 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Saints’ last 11 games have gone OVER the total points line
  • The Saints have the eighth-best red-zone defense in the NFL (44% conversion rate).

Overall

Rewind all the way back to Week 1, and I was all over the Panthers in this spot against the Saints. Alas, Carolina hasn't exceeded expectations through the entire 2024 season. Instead, they are selling off every single asset they have. They just traded their best receiver, Diontae Johnson, to the Ravens. Andy Dalton is out, so Bryce Young will be starting again.

Meanwhile, the Saints will be getting back starting QB Derek Carr.

I've practiced restraint from betting on the Panthers the last two weeks, and it has saved my bankroll. But maybe I've just been missing out on opportunities to make money. Carolina has been a disaster. Young has a 27% record ATS. He has covered five games in 20 games played.

Even at 2-6, the Saints have the chance to play inspired by Carr’s return. The Broncos, led by Bo Nix, did whatever they wanted to against the Panthers’ defense.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Saints have scored 28.0 points per game in five games with Derek Carr as the starter and just 15.0 points per game in 3 games with Spencer Rattler as the starter.

I would expect nothing less from New Orleans in Week 9, given that one of the two times this offense has functioned well, it came against Carolina to open the season.

That said, the offense still won't be nearly as effective as it was out of the gates. Rashid Shaheed was Carr's big-play guy, and I'm concerned about the lack of sheer explosiveness from the Saints.

I projected this game much closer to 39.5 points, providing a major edge toward the under. Per DraftKings Sportsbook, seven of the last eight games between the Saints and Panthers have gone UNDER the total points line.

Props

In Week 8, Chris Olave led with eight receptions on 14 targets, totaling 107 yards at 13.4 yards per catch. Olave ran a route on 88% of dropbacks and had three red zone targets but did not score a touchdown. Olave dominated with a 37.84% target share, amassing 156 air yards, which accounted for 57.78% of the team's total air yards.

Without Rashid Shaheed for the rest of the season, Olave is looking at double-digit targets every single week. Every No. 1 WR the Panthers have faced since Week 2 has surpassed their receptions prop, with five going for at least six grabs.

My Picks

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