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Patriots vs. Dolphins: NFL Week 8 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets

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I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Patriots vs. Dolphins.

NFL Betting Primer: Patriots vs. Dolphins

Miami Dolphins (-9) vs. New England Patriots

This has to be a massive letdown spot for the New England Patriots...right? They head down to South Beach, which has consistently been more of a House of Horrors for the New England faithful rather than any type of vacation.

Miami is 4-3 toward the over this season. The unders came against the league's worst scoring offenses in the Patriots/Giants and recently on Sunday Night Football versus the Eagles (48 points came under the 52-point closing line).

We saw this game play out in Week 2 to an under with a final score of 24-17. And up until last week's offensive resurgence against the Buffalo Bills, that was one of the more productive outings New England had on offense.

Buffalo’s injuries on defense gave New England’s offense a boost, but so did their offensive line FINALLY getting healthy. Cole Strange was back in the lineup for the first time since Week 3. Mike Onwenu was back after missing Week 6. Explosive rookie WR Demario Douglas was healthy.

And I think New England can roll over similar offensive success, building off last week's game. Their offense - shockingly - has struggled the most in between the 20s, while being much improved in the red zone. They rank fourth in red zone efficiency this season. Now, part of that is a small sample - they hardly have a timeshare parked in the opponent's red zone this year - but it is encouraging they are converting when they do get close to scoring. Miami's red-zone defense ranks 27th this season.

And don't overlook the fact that this Patriots defense is a different unit than the one Miami played on the road in Week 2. Matt Judon and Christian Watson aren't healthy. And their defense still gave up 339 yards of offense and 25 points to the Bills even in a winning effort. The Pats’ defense has allowed nearly 27 points per game in their last three contests.

The way I see it, the over is the move to make with multiple paths to succession. Miami's offense can handle the leg work as they have done in all their home games against inferior opponents. Perfect 3-0 ATS including two double-digit covers. All overs.

And the Patriots offense should be able to do enough on their end as well to get this game over the projected total. I ultimately side with Miami at -9.5 - never bet on NE in Miami - as Mac Jones is notoriously bad ATS as an underdog. At home, it worked versus Buffalo. On the road versus Miami? No thanks.

The Dolphins have covered the spread in each of their last six games against the Patriots.

The Patriots will do everything in their power to shut down opposing No. 1s.

They did so versus Tyreek Hill in Week 2, and I think they will do the same in Week 8 as Hill battles through a hip injury. As scary as it is to bet an under on Hill, I think that's the move to make. Conversely, bet the over on Jaylen Waddle's receiving yards prop. Two of Waddle's highest receiving yardage games (86, 63) have come when Hill has been held under 100 receiving yards.

My Picks:

My Props:

What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.


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