Patriots vs. Giants: NFL Week 12 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets
I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Patriots vs. Giants.
NFL Betting Primer: Patriots vs. Giants
New York Giants vs. New England Patriots (-3)
Gross. Bet the under and move on. But seriously…
My New England Patriots have the worst record ATS in the AFC. Second worst in the NFL (20%) at 2-8. The Giants have been better at covering 32% of their games.
The Patriots offense is in complete disarray, with unknowns who the starting quarterback will even be. The focus should just be on running the football, something they should be able to do against a horrible Giants run defense that ranks fourth in rushing yards allowed per game.
Because neither offense is prolific, the game flow should keep the Patriots feeding their star RB, Rhamondre Stevenson, fresh off the bye week.
As for the total, 8 of the Giants' last 9 games have gone under the projected total. 9-2 overall toward the under. The Giants have scored 20 points on offense twice this season (Week 2 and Week 11). The Patriots have held their last two opponents to 20 or fewer points.
The Patriots games have gone OVER in two of their last four games. These teams have combined for a 6-15 record toward the under averaging 38 points scored.
Coming off a bye week, the Patriots are the healthier team. Their offense has an advantage in the run game, and I think their defense can do enough to harass Tommy DeVito into mistakes. Again, don't let their win over the Commanders - a team the Patriots were favored against a few weeks back - distract you from the fact it took 6 Washington turnovers for them to win. DeVito was sacked 9 times.
As a Patriots fan - vying for a top draft pick - I'd like to see them lose. But they will inevitably pull out the win in New York. MetLife Stadium is the anti-Coors Field by the way. 8-1 toward the under between the Jets/Giants. I'd bet that record turns to 10-1 by Sunday night.
With the game total likely going under - unless we get short fields created by turnovers - you'll want to mix in some player prop unders as well. Giants RB Saquon Barkley was in negative yardage in the 1st half of last week's game. 6 carries for -2 yards.
The Patriots are only allowing 80 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs, with just two individuals hitting 80 yards - in games where the defense allowed 30 points on defense. That will not be the case on Sunday.
New England's defense also ranks second in the NFL in the fewest yards per carry allowed to opposing RBs (3.5).
My Picks:
- Under 33.5
- Patriots -3
My Props:
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts