Patriots vs. Jets NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 8)

Introducing the Week 8 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 8 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Patriots vs. Jets.

Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 8 Betting Primer>>

New York Jets @ New England Patriots

Sides:

• The Patriots have lost each of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record.
• The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games.
• The Patriots have lost eight of their last nine games.
• In each of the Patriots’ last six games, their opponents have been the first to 15 points.
• The Jets have failed to cover the spread in 14 of their last 18 games. 2-5 ATS this season
• The Jets have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games against teams with winning records.

Totals:

• Eight of the last 12 Patriots' games have gone OVER the projected game total.
• The Patriots' defense has allowed 300-plus yards in five of seven games this season. They had allowed one team to go for 300 yards from Weeks 9-18 last season.
• New England is 12-12 toward the under in their last 24 games. 3-4 this season.
• Thirteen of the Jets’ last 18 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the last five games between the Jets and Patriots has gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

No number or trend suggests backing the Patriots at home. As home underdogs, the Pats are 1-9-1 ATS in their last contests. The Jets aren't much better as road favorites (2-3-1), but it's still better. And we know which team is better (at least theoretically).

I've backed the Pats with the points the last two weeks to no avail. Rookie Drake Maye's impressed but remains winless straight up and against the spread.

Meanwhile, the Jets seem like a team that is "due" for a win each week.

They were favored on the road against the Steelers and lost after going into the second half with a lead.

Both teams are spiraling. But the Jets need this so much more. New England was supposed to be bad this season, and they are. But Maye looks like he can be a franchise quarterback, which is all that anyone in New England should care about. And this so-called New England defense isn't just soft. It's bad.

They can't stop the run or pass, quite frankly. They are eighth in yards per game and per play allowed.

New York's offense carved up the Patriots without Davante Adams back in Week 3 to the tune of 400 yards of total offense and 24 points (tying a season-high).

The Jets need to get going on offense, and New England is the punching bag they need to do so.

Still, seven points on the road is a lot for Gang Green against an AFC East opponent.

If anything, I'd bet the over on this game total that is suspiciously low at 40.5 points. Patriots games the last two weeks have flown way over the total with games finishing at 62 and 48 points.

Maye's big-play ability and turnover-worthy proneness - five turnover-worthy plays in the last two games - will help this game score points.

Per Next Gen Stats, The Jets defense has blitzed on 37.7% of opposing dropbacks since Jeff Ulbrich took over as head coach in Week 6, 9th-highest in the NFL over that span and a 9.0% increase from their blitz rate through the first five weeks under Robert Saleh. Despite the increase in blitzes, the Jets pressure rate has actually dropped from 40.1% (3rd-highest) to 37.7% (14th) under Ulbrich, including a 30.4% pressure rate when blitzing (7th-lowest in the NFL). The Patriots have allowed a league-high 46.5% pressure rate this season, including a 58.0% pressure rate when getting blitzed (2nd-highest in the NFL).

Pressure from blitzes is going to lead to big plays (either offensively or defensively).

And Maye won't be afraid to attack downfield. Per Next Gen Stats, Maye has attempted a downfield (10+ air yards) pass on 28.2% of his pass attempts this season, completing 10 of his 22 such attempts for 233 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception.

Only the Ravens have faced more deep-ball attempts than the Jets this season.

Consider that New England should also be able to establish the run against New York, it's just another reason to back the over. Games in New England have averaged 43.3 points (2-1 O/U).

Props:

Christian Gonzalez has faced Garrett Wilson twice over the past two seasons, allowing seven receptions for 43 yards and a touchdown on 13 targets across the two matchups.

In their Week 3 matchup earlier this season, Wilson was targeted on eight of his nine matchups with Gonzalez, recording four receptions for 25 yards and a touchdown.

DeMario Douglas only played one snap in the second half of last week’s game. He ran a route on 24% of dropbacks and was targeted on 30% of his routes run. Pain.

He was dealing with an illness and finished with just two catches for 14 yards on three targets (two of which came on the first drive of the game). But he also left the game after getting a false start penalty. Presuming he is healthy, he is still the WR1 on the Patriots depth chart. Take the over on his receptions. Five of the last six most comparable WRs to Douglas have gone OVER their receptions prop against the Jets this season.

My Picks:

• Over 40.5
• DeMario Douglas OVER 3.5 receptions