Patriots vs. Rams NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 11)
Introducing the Week 1 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 1 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Patriots vs. Rams.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 11 Betting Primer>>
Los Angeles Rams @ New England Patriots
Sides:
- The Patriots have lost 11 of their last 13 games against teams with a losing record.
- The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in six of their last nine games.
- The Patriots have lost nine of their last 12 games.
- As road underdogs, the Patriots are 47.5% ATS (8-9) and sub-50% ATS on the road in their last 21 road contests.
- The Rams have failed to cover the spread in six of their last nine games.
- The Rams 2023 starters are 3-10 as underdogs straight up. 2-4 as underdogs this season (3-3 ATS) after their massive wins against the 49ers and the Vikings.
- The favorites have won 17 of the Rams' last 20 games.
- The Rams have won seven of their last nine home games.
- Their opponents have scored first in each of the Rams' last five home games.
- The Rams have lost the first half in each of their last six road games.
- The Rams have covered the spread in four of their last five games as road favorites.
Totals:
- Nine of the last 15 Patriots’ games have gone OVER the projected game total.
- Four of the Patriots’ last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.
- The Patriots’ defense has allowed 300-plus yards in seven of 10 games this season. They had allowed one team to go for 300 yards from Weeks 9-18 last season.
- New England is 13-14 toward the under in its last 27 games and 5-5 this season.
- They are 3-1 toward the over at home (44 points per game).
- Eight of the Rams' last 15 games with their starters have gone OVER the total points line.
- The Rams are 11-11 toward the O/U in their last 22 games.
- Against offenses other than the Browns, Cardinals, Seahawks, or injury-plagued Bengals, the Rams allowed at least 20 points on defense in every game in 2023. Only seven times since the start of 2023 has the defense allowed fewer than 300 yards of offense. They allowed over 300 yards of offense to the Raiders in Week 7. Miami only generated 238 yards against them on Monday Night Football.
- Four of the Rams’ last five games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Overall:
Based on what we saw last week, I would be very cautious about overanalyzing the performances of these two teams. The Bears’ offensive ineptitude was the reason New England's defense looked good. They had nine sacks in Week 10 and 16 total sacks through the first nine weeks of the season.
The Rams’ offense moved the ball on the Dolphins, but they were horrible on third down and in the red zone. Matthew Stafford has been very bad when pressured this season, but the Patriots are one of the worst teams at generating a pass rush–the sixth-worst pressure this season. Combine that with a bad run defense, and I think the Rams light up the scoreboard after they laid a dud on MNF.
Keep in mind that the Rams got two of their offensive linemen back last week, but they might have been a bit rusty. Trust Stafford in a clean pocket with all his weapons to take advantage of the Patriots’ bad defense.
The Rams have covered the spread in four of their last five games as road favorites. This is the spot where they deliver.
I also think we are going to see Drake Maye under constant duress. The Rams can't cover well, but they can generate a top pass rush.
According to Next Gen Stats, the Patriots have allowed the second-highest pressure rate (42.4%), the most quick pressures (86), and the fourth-most sacks (32). Given the Patriots’ latest trend toward overs, combined with the Rams’ offense in a favorable spot, I love the over here at 43.5 points.
The Patriots’ offense is predicated on Maye’s off-script abilities, and they will be on full display on Sunday at Gillette Stadium.
The Rams are 31st in EPA/attempt against downfield throws. Maye is dropping bombs this week.
Props:
Every RB used in the Rams’ passing game this season has gone over their prop, with all but two going for at least 30 receiving yards.
Kayshon Boutte has emerged as the Patriots’ No. 1 WR. He has 32.5 receiving yards in five of his last six games (only under against the Titans) and six targets in three straight contests. He has over 320 air yards in his last three games (6th-most). The Rams rank 30th in yards per attempt allowed this season.
My Picks: