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Patriots vs. Seahawks NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 2)

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Introducing the Week 2 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 2 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Patriots and Seahawks.

Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 2 Betting Primer>>

New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)

Sides:

  • The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in six of their last eight games in September.
  • The Patriots have lost seven of their last eight games at Gillette Stadium.
  • In each of the Seahawks' last seven games, their opponents have scored first.
  • Seattle is 8-2 as a favorite last ten games.
  • The favorites have won 14 of the Seahawks' last 16 games.
  • Seattle is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games played (3-6 over the last nine games).
  • The Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games as favorites.
  • The Seahawks have lost five of their last seven road games.
  • Geno Smith is 39% ATS as a favorite.
  • Jacoby Brissett is 56% ATS as an underdog.
  • The Seahawks have covered the spread in five of their last six road openers.

Totals:

  • Four of the last six Patriots' games have gone over the projected game total.
  • The Patriots were 3-5 toward the under at home in 2023-an average of under 37 points per game.
  • Four of the last five Patriots' games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Patriots defense has allowed 300-plus yards once since Week 9 of last season.
  • Four of the Seahawks' last six games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Seahawks' last eight road games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

It's very clear how both teams want to operate on offense. Run the football. In Week 1, the Patriots finished 22nd in pass rate over expectation (-6.7%), while Seattle ranked 21st in that category (-5.6%).

In terms of general run rate, New England finished Week 1 third (52%) while Seattle (50%) finished sixth.

I don't think we need to overthink this matchup from a total perspective. It's a matchup between two brand-new defensive-minded head coaches. They each won their first NFL game by feeding their starting RBs 20-plus carries.

Run the ball. Play defense. Smells like an under to me.

Don't love either side, especially with the number at 3.5 as opposed to three (this number might drop to three closer to kickoff). Likely a live bet opportunity to go back to Seattle if they start slow like they did last week versus the Broncos. How they failed to cover in that game against the Broncos is beyond me. Bo Nix was atrocious and still got the backdoor cover.

Also, a note on the Patriots defense: Last week's performance was a little overrated. They pressured Joe Burrow on only six of his 35 dropbacks (17%). Their pressure rate ranked 31st in Week 1. It will be a much tougher day for the Patriots’ defense if they allow Geno Smith to get into a groove. Considering Seattle's biggest issue in pass protection across the OL, New England might not be able to take advantage. Seattle lost OT George Fant in Week 1.

New England's run defense also wasn't great, finishing Week 1 at 25th in expected points added on defense.

The Bengals defense also wasn't able to expose the Patriots' pass protection issues. Brissett was pressured on 45% of his dropbacks (13 of 29)-the most of any QB in Week 1. Second-most pressured QB? Bo Nix, fresh off his game versus the Seahawks’ defense. Patriots fans might be in for a rude awakening in Week 2.

Props:

  • Noah Fant only had two catches last week on four targets, but he was involved very early on in the game. Three of his four targets came on Geno Smith's first five passes. Clearly, there's an intention to get him the ball, so I like the over on his 2.5 receptions prop after he ran a route on 71% of the dropbacks.

My Picks:

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