Patriots vs. Texans NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 6)
Introducing the Week 6 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 6 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Patriots vs. Texans.
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Houston Texans @ New England Patriots
Sides:
- The Texans have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games. 1-4 ATS this season.
- The Texans are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as favorites (4-10 ATS as a favorite since the start of 2023).
- Eleven of their last 13 wins have been by seven or fewer points.
- Overall, Houston is just 11-11 against the spread over its last 22 games.
- Houston is 1-4 as road favorites (20%). 4-9-1 ATS as a favorite (31%).
- The Patriots have lost each of their last nine games against teams with a losing record.
- The Patriots have lost nine of their last 10 games at Gillette Stadium. Losers of six straight home games.
- Rookie QBs are a combined 12-3 ATS this season.
Totals:
- The Texans have gone under in 15 of their last 24 games, which featured them playing many offenses averaging fewer than 20 points per game.
- Houston is 0-4 O/U this season.
- Six of the last 10 Patriots' games have gone OVER the projected game total.
- The Patriots' defense has allowed 300-plus yards in three of five games this season. They had allowed one team to go for 300 yards from Weeks 9-18 last season.
- New England is 12-10 toward the under in their last 22 games (54%).
Overall:
Jerod Mayo had five weeks of Jacoby Brissett as his team's starting quarterback, and he's seen enough. This year's No. 3 overall pick, Drake Maye, will make his first NFL start at home in Week 6 against the Houston Texans.
Since the announcement, there hasn't been much line movement, with the total (38.5) and spread (HOU -7) staying pat.
And this makes sense, given the supporting cast Maye has offensively. Brissett has been the most pressured quarterback this season, and it's been mostly on the offensive line.
Per Next Gen Stats, Patriots blockers have allowed the highest quarterback pressure rate (48.3%) and unblocked pressure rate (13.5%) this season.
Is this a problem? Yes.
The Texans’ defense has generated a 42.0% pressure rate this season, the highest in the NFL. Danielle Hunter currently leads the NFL with 29 pressures, while Will Anderson is tied for 7th with 23. The Texans have successfully created pressure even without blitzing, generating the highest pressure rate (40.4%) on non-blitzes this season.
I think that Mayo believes that in the face of pressure, Maye can create and do "more" than Brissett. The former UNC quarterback is more athletic and was one of the most underrated rushing quarterbacks coming out of this year's draft class. He averaged nearly 56 yards per game on the ground through his two years as a starter. The rookie will ask to carry the load after drawing the starting nod in New England - for better or worse – amid a lackluster supporting cast.
Simply put, any success the Patriots have on offense will be because of Maye. I think there will be some highs accompanied by many lows.
And although the offensive line is currently horrible, I think in the long-term, there's a small chance it might be decent. LT Vederian Lowe played better last week as did LG Michael Jordan. Mike Onwenu is one staple on the offensive line they have. The main issues are at center and right tackle. Losing center David Andrews for the entire season is brutal for Maye. We've seen veteran centers help young players with checks and adjustments in the past, and it's a shame Maye won't have that all year.
Even with Maye at quarterback, we know the Patriots will still try to run the ball-perhaps with more play-action added to the playbook. I'd expect the offense to keep Maye on the move with bootlegs, etc., to prevent him from being a sitting duck.
Houston's run defense isn't great - fourth-worst in rush/EPA per attempt - so we could see a decent outing from the Rhamondre Stevenson/Antonio Gibson backfield duo, although Stevenson is nursing a calf injury he suffered last week.
As for the Texans offense, they will be without No. 1 WR Nico Collins. This will place more emphasis on Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell. I'd expect the Patriots to use Christian Gonzalez on Diggs as much as possible, setting up Dell to post a strong receiving stat line. In 2023, Collins missed one game while Dell was healthy. He had 14 targets in that matchup.
Houston has shown a propensity to pound the rock at a decent clip, and it's been extremely inefficient. It’s the third worst in rushing EPA/attempt. With Joe Mixon looking like a longshot to play again, I'd presume we don't see much of a threat on the ground for Houston's offense, with Dare Ogunbowale leading the way after he usurped Cam Akers as the starter in Week 5. Dameon Pierce is expected to play through, which could be the boost this run game needs. Still, he is a total unknown in this offense from a scheme fit and likely would inherit mostly early down work with Ogunbowale used as the main receiver out of the backfield.
The Texans hardly cover spreads of this magnitude, and Maye throws an unknown element into the equation, backing off anything HOU -7. If anything, I'd back the Patriots at home, catching seven points behind a mobile quarterback.
The Patriots should be 2-0 ATS at home this season after losing two tight contests.
As for the total, my initial lean was on the over on the game total(as crazy as that seems). And it's because I could see turnovers coming in bunches. Based on the pressure rates for the Patriots and Texans, it would make sense to see Houston create more turnovers. They've only generated three turnovers this season, while the Patriots have only turned the ball over four times.
Something has to give.
It's hardly the best bet, but I think in a wacky way of sorts this game goes over 37.5 points. If anything, maybe it's a reason to move away from slamming the under on another Patriots and/or Texans game which has been the move so far this season.
Props:
- I teased this earlier, but Drake Maye will use his legs A LOT in this matchup. The Texans rank dead last in rushing/EPA per QB scramble this season, allowing nearly 32 rushing yards per game to opposing QBs. This prop is how you make money watching this game.
- Rookie Ja'Lynn Polk was targeted six times (20% Target share) and caught one pass for 13 yards in Week 5. Polk was HOSED on a fourth-quarter touchdown that would have given the Patriots the go-ahead score. He also led the team in air yards for the second straight week (13 targets in the last two games). Polk continues to string together impressive outings that aren't necessarily being reflected in the box score. The offense situation is bad, but Polk is flashing his talent. He played 100% of the snaps for the Patriots in Week 5. I think we see the rookie-to-rookie chemistry flash between Maye and Polk in Week 6.
My Picks: