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Peach Bowl: Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Georgia Bulldogs Odds & Game Pick (2021)

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The Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl is shaping up to be a tasty New Year’s Day appetizer for the College Football Playoff semifinals later on in the day. American Athletic Conference champion Cincinnati will represent the Group of 5 in the prestigious New Year’s Six bowl games this season as they battle Georgia out of the SEC. Despite their unblemished record, the betting odds have determined Cincinnati to be a touchdown underdog in this de facto home game for Georgia.

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Details

  • Opening Lines: Georgia -8; O/U 53.5
  • Current ATS Line: Georgia -7
  • Current Over/Under: 50.5
  • Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium – Atlanta, GA
  • Date: Friday, Jan. 1, 2021
  • Start Time: 12 p.m. EST
  • Television: ESPN
  • Last Meeting: Cincinnati and Georgia have not faced each other in football dating back to 1995. 

Overview

This season has been a remarkable one for Luke Fickell and Cincinnati. After turning down an offer to become the head coach at Michigan State in the offseason, Fickell led a supremely talented Bearcats team to an undefeated record, AAC championship, and a top-10 ranking despite the CFP committee’s bias against Group of 5 schools. Cincinnati will look to prove to the nation just how good they are on New Year’s Day against one of the SEC’s powerhouse programs. Junior quarterback Desmond Ridder is a dual-threat player capable of keeping opposing defenses honest. He may be called upon to run more in the Peach Bowl if running back Gerrid Doaks cannot suit up due to a leg injury.

Georgia experienced an offensive resurgence down the stretch, which came with undeniable links to a quarterback change. In the three games since JT Daniels took over for Stetson Bennett, the Bulldogs have averaged 41.67 points per contest. When compared to their 29.0 PPG average over their first six contests, it’s clear that Daniels has provided an upgrade. Something will have to give on New Year’s Day in this matchup against a Cincinnati defense that only surrendered 15.5 PPG on the season.

Georgia fans also have to be encouraged about how Kirby Smart got his players to rally and finish the season strong, despite having their College Football Playoff hopes squashed in a loss to Florida. With that said, the Bulldogs will be without several key contributors in the Peach Bowl due to opt-outs, including offensive linemen Ben Cleveland and Trey Hill, linebacker Monty Rice, and cornerbacks Eric Stokes and DJ Daniel.

Trends

  1. Cincinnati 2020 Betting Trends: 5-4 ATS; 5-4 to the Over
  2. Georgia 2020 Betting Trends: 4-5 ATS; 6-3 to the Over
  3. Four of Cincinnati’s last five bowl games have gone Under the total.
  4. Georgia is 6-1 ATS in their last seven bowl games.
  5. Non-Power 5 conference schools are 2-0 outright and ATS as underdogs in the Peach Bowl over the last five seasons.

Line Movement

*Line movement analysis based on the DonBest Las Vegas betting market ticker*

The point spread for the Peach Bowl has seen modest betting action on Cincinnati as an underdog. The opening consensus line of Georgia -8 has dipped down to an even touchdown margin of -7 at all shops across Las Vegas at the time of writing. It’s interesting to see the little guy (Cincinnati) taking most of the money here.

The total for this game is where we see slightly more significant sharp action. Both Cincinnati and Georgia boasted two of the best defenses in the country this season. As such, the betting market gobbled up the opening over/under of 53.5, moving the line down to its current stature of 50.5.

Prediction

I’ve been saying all year that Cincinnati is legitimately one of the best teams in not only the Group of 5 but the entire country. At the same time, I have also vehemently argued that the SEC is, without a doubt, college football’s superior conference. Both Cincinnati and Georgia are excellent football teams, and I’m very excited to enjoy this Peach Bowl matchup, regardless of the outcome.

Many college football analysts have questioned Georgia’s motivation for bowl games in recent years after they narrowly missed out on the playoffs. Two years ago, the Bulldogs were embarrassed by Texas in the Sugar Bowl, but Georgia then bounced back against Baylor in last year’s Sugar Bowl. With an eye to how they finished the regular season, I expect Georgia to show up for this game on New Year’s Day.

With that said, betting on Georgia to win is one thing. Laying a full touchdown against a Cincinnati squad that will be chomping at the bit to prove just how good they are on the national stage is another. Therefore, bettors might consider a little New Year’s Day moneyline parlay featuring Georgia as the first leg and running into the CFP semis later on in the day. As far as a straight bet on the Peach Bowl, though, give me the points. 

Picks: Georgia Moneyline and Cincinnati +7 (-265 and -110 respectively at DraftKings Sportsbook)

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.