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Penn State vs. Purdue: Big Ten Championship Picks & Predictions (2023)

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I hope if you’re reading this Big Ten title game preview, it’s because you read my 2023 Big Ten Tournament betting preview. In there, I listed Penn State as one of my two recommended plays for the Big Ten Tournament.

The resilient Nittany Lions outlasted both the local favorites, Illinois and Northwestern, then controlled most of the game against Indiana as 4-point underdogs. Now, Penn State will face its stiffest test against Purdue, the class of the Big Ten all season. The Boilermakers handled Penn State by double digits in both meetings this year. But those games occurred well before Penn State’s recent hot streak began.

So how do we handle the third matchup between these two teams? If you’re sitting on a Penn State tournament ticket, I’ll outline my strategy for how I’m handling my future. Let’s break down this Big Ten title showdown.

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Sunday:

Purdue Boilermakers (-5.5) vs. Penn State Nittany Lions, Total 136.5

To Hedge, or Not to Hedge a Penn State future? 

Let’s say you’re a loyal reader, and you took Penn State at 25/1 or better. You may be thinking about hedging to secure some profit in a bad matchup against the conference’s best team. Frankly, I don’t blame you. Here’s what I wrote in my Big Ten tourney preview:

A title game matchup with Purdue is the only matchup I’d truly fear for Penn State. But there will be hedging opportunities to be had should we get that far.

As you could probably assume from that excerpt, I am planning to hedge my 32/1 ticket on Penn State. These Nittany Lions have won my heart, but Purdue is the most complete team Penn State will face. The Boilermakers rank inside the top 25 in both offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency.

If you’re willing to let it ride and chase the biggest payout possible, I totally understand and don’t dislike your decision. The Nittany Lions are running red hot and have posted decent defensive efforts throughout the Big Ten tournament. But I think the smarter decision is to secure some profits, especially considering how much of a long shot Penn State was entering the week.

Use a hedging calculator and figure out how much to put on the Purdue moneyline to hedge this future.

Penn State Winning Despite Lackluster 3-point Shooting

What’s really fascinating about Penn State’s run to the Big Ten title game is that they’ve done so without shooting the ball all that well. The Nittany Lions, who rank 9th in 3-point percentage and 54th in 2-point percentage, have shot just 35.9% from deep and 50% from inside the arc. While those numbers aren’t bad by any means, they are less than Penn State’s regular season averages.

The Nittany Lions have made up for that with greater effort on the defensive end, specifically against the three. Opponents have shot just 23.7% in their three Big Ten title games. PSU might be due for some regression in that area, but the Boilermakers aren’t a great 3-point shooting team, ranking just 219th in that category.

Where Penn State could be exploited is inside. The Nittany Lions allowed the Hoosiers to shoot 29-for-53 from inside. Trayce Jackson-Davis put up 24 points, 10 rebounds, and seven assists in the semifinal loss. That could be problematic against Zach Edey and a Boilermakers offense that shoots 54% from 2-point range. Penn State has been a good glass-cleaning team all season, and that’ll have to continue against a Boilermakers bunch that ranks third in offensive rebounding.

Purdue Has Handled Its Business 

The Boilermakers entered this tournament with some questions but they’ve withstood a gritty Rutgers team and handled a desperate Ohio State team that played with nothing to lose. Matt Painter’s offense starts with Edey, who will likely be the National Player of the Year. The 7-foot-4 center dominated in two meetings against Penn State this year, putting up 48 points while shooting 21-of-30 from the field.

Penn State could choose to do what several teams have done against Purdue down the stretch defensively: double Edey and dare one of Purdue’s young guards, Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith, to beat them. Purdue also has veteran wing Mason Gillis, who can make this offense lethal if he’s cooking from 3-point range.

Purdue is also a strong defensive team, ranking top-55 in both 2-point and 3-point defense. The Boilermakers held Penn State to just 42.6% from the floor in their two regular season wins.

Betting Pick and Prediction 

I love this Penn State team, but this feels like the end of the run.

Maybe I’m making a big assumption that the NCAA selection committee has been paying attention but the Nittany Lions should have secured their bid with wins during this tournament. That’s not to say Penn State is going to let off the gas, but the team might exhale a bit, and considering this will be their fourth game in as many days, the Nittany Lions could be feeling some fatigue early after partaking in three battles before this.

Plus, Purdue is just a bad matchup for this Penn State team. They defend as well as Penn State’s quarterfinal opponent, Northwestern, but they feature a great offense. That offense is headlined by the 7-foot-4 Edey, the likely national player of the year. Oh, and Penn State has one player at 6-foot-10 or taller, freshman Kebba Nije, who’s played just 34% of the team’s minutes.

Combine this advantageous matchup with Penn State’s fatigue, and I’d expect Purdue to get up early and never look back.

The pick: Purdue -7.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners â€” or head to more advanced strategies — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread â€” to learn more.

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