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PGA Championship 2022: Best Round 4 Futures Bet

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Our second major of the 2022 PGA Season winds down to a close on Sunday as Mito Pereira holds a strong three-stroke lead at 9-under par. Below, I give out my best future bet for Round 4 of the 2022 PGA Championship.

The one play below is 1.5 units, or 1.5% of your betting bankroll

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Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Mito Pereira Outright Winner (+140) – 1.5 units

As I mentioned in the opening, Pereira holds a three-stroke lead over the rest of the field. To illuminate how important that margin is, let us look at past majors.

Since the start of the 2017 PGA season, there have been seven instances where a golfer has led by a minimum of three strokes entering Sunday. Over those seven tournaments, ALL SEVEN of those golfers have won the event.

While It is a boring play to go with the clubhouse leader and betting favorite entering Sunday, it is the smart one. At +140 odds, Pereira has an implied win probability of 41.67%.

We are getting incredible value on this number as DataGolf.com has Pereira’s win probability entering Sunday at 51%, representing almost 10% of gained value. Not only is history on our side with Pereira, but his metrics suggest regression should not stop him on Sunday.

Two of the most important metrics that have a strong correlation with winning the PGA Championship are SG Tee to Green and SG Approach the Green. Pereira’s iron play has been dominant this tournament as he currently ranks second amongst the field in SG Tee to Green and ninth in SG Approach the Green.

Based on Pereira’s dominant iron play this season, these figures are not a fluke. On TOUR this season, Pereira ranks 21st in SG Tee to Green and 13th in SG Approach the Green.

With six top-30 finishes over his last eight tournaments, It appears Pereira is poised to finally get over the hump and collect his first PGA TOUR victory on a grand stage.

Best of luck!

PGA Championship 2022 Golfer Profiles

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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.