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PGA Championship 2022: Round 2 Head-to-Head Best Bets

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On Thursday, Southern Hills had sunny, dry conditions during its opening round at the 104th PGA Championship in Tulsa, Oklahoma. This weather allowed several players to thrive, most notably Rory McIlroy, who sunk four consecutive birdies to start his round on top and cruised into a five-under-par finish to sit alone in first place after Round 1.

My head-to-head picks in Round 1 all missed, meaning I am implementing a new strategy for Round 2 head-to-head matchups. First-round average scoring was not the primary statistic, as many courses stretch to a par 72 instead of a par 70 like Southern Hills. The lack of par 5s, one on the front-nine and one on the back-nine, places added pressure onto drivers and strong, accurate irons. The rain will appear around Noon and should increase throughout Friday afternoon, slowing the bentgrass greens even more.

Below, I walk through my three best head-to-head bets for the 2022 PGA Championship. All plays below are one unit each, or 1% of your betting bankroll.

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Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Justin Thomas over Patrick Cantlay (-135)

Back-to-back bogeys on the 8th and 9th holes did not deter Justin Thomas in Round 1, as he cleaned up his performance on the back-nine by avoiding all bogeys and adding three birdies to climb into a T6 at three-under-par.

Thomas has been seeking his first win on the PGA Tour after racking up seven top-ten finishes, including three over the past two months. This added motivation, plus his momentum and brilliance as a premiere ball-striker, makes him a favorable prospect to bet on during the second round at Southern Hills.

I was confident in Patrick Cantlay starting strong on Thursday, but he plummeted into a T122 with six-over-par thanks to eight bogeys and only two birdies. Unfortunately, his typical fast start in Round 1 did not transfer yesterday, and the high wind and precipitation will only make it harder for Cantlay to dig himself out of a deep hole. So take Thomas at -135 and don’t look back.

Matt Kuchar over Tony Finau (+100)

Matt Kuchar and Tony Finau performed admirably in Round 1, and it’s difficult to predict how they will finish in Round 2 with expected adverse elements. Kuchar, a 43-year-old veteran, has strung together finishes of T16, T2, T3, T49, and T12 since Valspar two months ago. However, he’s red hot and relies on his putter, which ranks ninth in strokes gained putting, averaging over four birdies per round.

Finau has a reason to be favored in Round 2. He’s a machine for converting greens in regulation, hitting at 69.7 percent while averaging 4.07 birdies per round. In addition, the 32-year-old American has a nice touch with his irons, ranking 32nd or better in strokes gained off-the-tee, approaching the green, and tee-to-green. However, he always saves his best for the fourth round, averaging a final score of 68.44 to rank 12th on the PGA Tour.

Kuchar consistently hovers around 69.9 to 69.2 in his four-round averages, ranking 55th in bounce-back percentage. In comparison, Finau has a tougher time scrambling and recovering from errant shots while struggling mightily with his putter. Kuchar has more skills and more momentum, making him the trendy pick to score lower than Finau on Friday at +100 odds.

Max Homa over Tyrell Hatton (+100)

Max Homa got off to a fast start with a three birdie stretch across the 12-14th holes on Thursday, but a double bogey on the 18th set him back when completing his round on the front nine. Two more bogeys followed, and although another birdie was salvaged, Homa’s three-under-par start collapsed into E.

Tyrell Hatton also yielded a score of even par after scrambling all three bogeys with birdies, washing away any chance of finishing over-par in Round 1. As good as he is with his putter, which ranks second in strokes gained putting, Hatton is miserable at converting greens in regulation. A relatively weak driver and lack of top 25 finishes in recent months, when compared to Homa, makes Hatton a favorite to fade.

Homa should be able to steady himself in the middle of Round 2 and display bogey avoidance to wind up with a lower score than Hatton by the end of Friday. At +100 odds, Homa has enormous appeal and should be invested in despite Hatton being the Round 2 betting favorite.

PGA Championship 2022 Golfer Profiles

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Matt is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Johnny, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.