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PGA Championship 2022: Round 3 Head-to-Head Best Bets

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Thanks to increased wind gusts and the added pressure of making the cut line after a slow start, Southern Hills stepped up its difficulty on Friday. Fortunately, my Round 2 head-to-head best bets proved much more lucrative and accurate than Round 1. Justin Thomas carded another three-under-par performance to eviscerate Patrick Cantlay’s five-over-par finish, leaving him watching the rest of the 104th PGA Championship from home during the final two days. Matt Kuchar managed to best Tony Finau by one stroke, albeit one-over-par, leaving him T10 heading into Round 3.

Only Max Homa faltered in my Round 2 head-to-head best bets, finishing one-under-par but failing to keep up with Tyrell Hatton, who produced a two-under-par finish in the second round, displaying why he was the betting favorite with a crisp iron game and strong putter.

Winds are expected to rage up to 20 miles per hour on Saturday, and the rain will be present into the early afternoon, impacting certain players and their tee times. As a result, weather delays are likely, but there should be quite a bit of leaderboard shifting on “moving day” during Round 3 at Southern Hills Country Club.

Below, I walk through my three best head-to-head bets for the 2022 PGA Championship. All plays below are one unit each, or 1% of your betting bankroll.

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Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Cam Smith over Viktor Hovland (-105)

Cam Smith regressed in Round 2 but still drew even on a windy day. The 28-year-old Aussie ranks first in birdie average (5.38) and ranks highly in nearly every strokes gained category, including strokes gained putting, which will always leave him within striking distance. An eighth-ranked greens in regulation conversion rate at over 71 percent adds even more incentive to invest in Smith during moving day.

Viktor Hovland is just as talented, but he has not yet managed to dip below par in either round at Southern Hills. Two birdies countered two bogeys for the young Norweigian, but he lacks touch around the green and is not good at recovering from errant shots into bunkers. Hovland is supremely talented with converting greens in regulation and gaining strokes on par 3s and off-the-tee; however, he has yet to put it all together at this course.

Smith is a bit more polished and can rely on his irons, putter, or a first-ranked birdie average to move up from his current T10 position on the leaderboard. It also helps to know that Smith averages 68.29 in third rounds, ranking fifth on the PGA Tour. In comparison, Hovland ranks 33rd with an average score of 69.44. Take Smith as the underdog at -105, as his game is better suited for harsh weather conditions than Hovland, whose odds make him the favorite at -115.

Matt Kuchar over Kevin Na (-125)

I rode with the savvy veteran in Round 2, and I’m going back for seconds in Round 3. Matt Kuchar did experience some frustrations in Round 2 compared to Round 1, befalling three bogeys. Still, a pair of birdies, including one on the 18th hole, salvaged his day and kept him at T10 (-2) after an impressive three-under-par finish on Thursday. Kuchar is ninth-ranked in strokes gained putting, averages over four birdies per round, and has an excellent touch with his irons around the green and in total strokes gained. Kuchar is also a master at recovering from the bunker, ranking eighth in sand save percentage.

Kevin Na, in comparison, struggles mightily with his irons. Na joined Kuchar in Round 2 with his final score of one-over-par, dropping him slightly back to T17 entering Round 3. Furthermore, Na does not score low in Round 2 or Round 3 on average, while Kuchar averages under 70, which is a stroke and a half lower than Na. Kuchar has more momentum from previous events, earning four top 25 finishes in his last five events, so investing in Kuchar as a -125 favorite in this head-to-head matchup is the wise decision.

Stewart Cink over Chris Kirk (+100)

Stewart Cink is another PGA Tour veteran who has been playing a great brand of golf in 2022. The 48-year-old American has managed to stay under-par in both rounds thus far, scoring 69 on Thursday and improving to two-under-par in Round 2 to climb quietly into T8. Cink does not impress much with his strokes gained metrics, but he is adept at converting greens in regulation at 67 percent. In addition, a relatively strong driver ranked 73rd and averaging over 300 yards per attempt benefits Cink at the lengthy track at Southern Hills.

Chris Kirk has a similar resumè to Cink in top ten finishes (2), but they have not happened in over two months. Kirk, a 37-year-old native of Georgia, has excellent irons but struggles with his putter. Wet bentgrass greens will only make it more difficult for Kirk to achieve one or two putts on a hole. Kirk also has missed the last two cuts in solo events at RBC Heritage and Vidanta, so he lacks the momentum that Cink has coming off of a T9 finish at a challenging Avenel Farm track during the Wells Fargo Championship.

I’ll take the veteran and his momentum, especially considering he’s one of a handful of golfers who have stayed below par in both rounds at Southern Hills. Getting Cink at +100 odds is a steal, so take the value and earn a solid payout while you’re at it.

PGA Championship 2022 Golfer Profiles

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Matt is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Johnny, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.