PGA Championship Betting Guide (2020)

Justin Thomas (12/1) won his 13th career PGA Tour victory and third title of 2020 at the WGC-St. Jude Invitational. Thomas took over the number one spot in the official world golf ranking with the win. The 27-year-old carded rounds of 66-70-66-65 to finish at 13-under par and win the tournament by three strokes. Thomas becomes the third-youngest golfer to reach 13 wins in the last 60 years, behind just Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus.

It’s officially Major week in the PGA! The first Major of the season will be played at TPC Harding Park in San Francisco, California. The PGA Championship will be the first of three Majors this year, and it will be the first Major since Shane Lowry took down the Open Championship in July of 2019. Despite there being no fans on the grounds this week, there will be no shortage of excitement heading into the event, as we will see an incredibly strong field with the best golfers in the world teeing it up.

A field of 156 players will be in the mix this week at TPC Harding Park. As per usual, the top-65 with ties will advance to the weekend. Newly crowned world number one Justin Thomas (+1000) and defending champion Brooks Koepka (+1000) are the betting favorites. Rory McIlroy (+1400), Jon Rahm (+1500), and Bryson Dechambeau (+1600) round out the top-five on BetMGM.

Here are the past five winners of the PGA Championship:

• 2019: Brooks Koepka (-8)
• 2018: Brooks Koepka (-16)
• 2017: Justin Thomas (-8)
• 2016: Jimmy Walker (-14)
• 2015: Jason Day (-20)

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Course Preview

Located on the west coast of San Francisco, California, TPC Harding Park is a mid-length parkland golf course that has undergone plenty of changes since its opening in 1925. This week, the course will play as a Par 70 and it will measure at 7,234 yards. However, as is the case with any Major event, tee boxes will be lengthened and with the thick San Francisco air, it will play much longer than the scorecard indicates.

Distance off the tee will be a major advantage at TPC Harding Park. With very few water hazards in play, bombers will be able to cut corners and use their off the tee game to set up shorter approach shots. Similar to last week at TPC Southwind, this course will feature seven Par 4s that measure over 450 yards long. There is even a Par 3 that is playing at a cruel 250 yards, which could easily play as the hardest hole this week. Proximity on approaches greater than 200 yards will be a key metric to look at.

Plenty of strategically placed bunkers, thick rough, and big Cypress Pine trees will be a challenge to the golfers this week. Players will be making the switch to Bentgrass greens, which are said to be mostly flat with little undulation. Coastal winds will pose another test for the golfers, and with the event being played in August, the course will be a bit more dried out than usual.

The last PGA Tour event we saw at TPC Harding Park was the 2015 WGC Match Play. Rory McIlroy was victorious over Gary Woodland in the final of the event. This is something to keep in mind, as these two are some of the longest, most accurate drivers of the golf ball in the PGA. Tiger Woods also has good vibes at this course, as he was the leading scorer in team USA’s President Cup victory in 2009, and he won the 2005 WGC American Express.

Key Stats

• Ball-Striking
• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Scrambling
• Performance on Bentgrass Greens
• Par-4 Scoring (450-500 yards)

Best Bets To Win (BetMGM)

Brooks Koepka (+1000)
Not only is Koepka an auto-bet when he’s teeing it up for a Major, but he is also rounding into his elite form at the perfect time. Koepka was one stroke behind Justin Thomas heading into the final hole at the WGC last week. He led the entire field in strokes gained: approach while finishing third in strokes gained: tee-to-green. These ball-striking numbers are a great sign for Koepka, who was really struggling with his iron play all season long. Koepka has now gained at least a stroke per round tee-to-green in his last six rounds and has gained at least one stroke with his approaches in five of his last six rounds.

Koepka has won four times in his last 10 Major Championships. His long, accurate off the tee game will once again be crucial for his success at TPC Harding Park. He is a much better putter than his results have shown this season and I expect some positive regression in that department this week. The three-peat of the PGA Championship would be an impressive feat for the 30-year-old, and all signs are trending well for his hopes.

Xander Schauffele (+2000)
California native Xander Schauffele should be very comfortable teeing it up at TPC Harding Park. The 26-year-old comes into the season’s first Major with already five top-10s to his name. A two-time winner in 2019, Schauffele is a proven winner who shows up in strong field events. His runner-up finishes at the Masters last year and T3 showing at the US Open are examples of his success in Majors.

Schauffele has a powerful off the tee game that will suit him well at TPC Harding Park. He averages an accurate 305 yards off the tee which has helped him rank seventh in strokes gained: off-the-tee, in 2020. Schauffele should be able to take advantage of the long Par 4s this week and set himself up for plenty of birdie chances.

He proved last week that he can still compete despite not having his best stuff. Schauffele lost strokes on his approaches but still finished T6 at the WGC. He led the field in strokes gained: around-the-green, on the week. There are few holes in his game and he is well set up to be in the mix on Sunday.

Best Top-10 Bets (BetMGM)

Patrick Cantlay (+275)
Cantlay was third on Tour in 2019 with ten top-10 finishes. He has really elevated his game to a new level over the past few seasons. Cantlay was third at the PGA Championship in 2019, tied for ninth at the Masters, and placed T21 on the US Open. The 28-year-old has proven he is a threat in Majors and has a great all-around golf game to go well once again.

Top-ten in both strokes gained: approach and tee-to-green, Cantlay sets up well for TPC Harding Park. He is one of the best ball-strikers on Tour and very accurate with his approaches. Cantlay caught fire on the weekend at the WGC last week, closing with rounds of 65 and 67.

Daniel Berger (+300)
Berger has climbed all the way to number 20 in the official world golf rankings. He has six top-10s in just 13 events in 2020, including a win at the Charles Schwab Challenge. The 27-year-old is coming off an impressive T2 finish at the WGC in Memphis. He shot rounds of 71-67-67-65 to make a big push on the weekend.

The underlying stats look great for Berger heading into this week. In the last 36 rounds, Berger ranks third in Par 4 efficiency on holes between 450-500 yards. He also ranks ninth in proximity on approaches greater than 200 yards. These are two key stats this week, and the way Berger is rolling it with the putter, I expect another high finish.

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Nic Turner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Nic, check out his archive and follow him @sportzbandit.