PGA Championship Odds & Picks: Best Round 4 Futures Bets

The 2024 PGA Championship is setting up for a memorable Sunday finish at Valhalla Golf Club. Xander Schauffele burned the field at 9-under-par on Thursday, but Shane Lowry matched him on Saturday, sinking nine birdies and climbing 25 spots on the leaderboard to occupy a fourth-place tie heading into Round 4. The Irishman joins Viktor Hovland and Bryson Dechambeau at 13 under par, with Sahith Theegala sitting alone in third place at 14-under-par, sandwiched between Schauffele and Collin Morikawa tied for first at 15-under-par.

Morikawa already has the 2020 PGA Championship on his resumé. He’s dialed in and seeking another win at this major, following a T3 finish at The Masters and ninth-place finish at RBC Heritage. His inability to close has loomed large in Round 4, so he’ll need to stay red-hot against the field nipping at his heels.

Will Scottie Scheffler set the course record at 10-under-par tomorrow and rally to win his third consecutive event at 350-1 odds? He’s eight strokes off the lead at 8-under-par, so it’s not out of the question. It’d be the perfect end to a tumultuous week for the World No. 1 golfer. The Wanamaker Trophy is within reach for at least 10 golfers, so let’s find out which futures betting markets to target entering Round 4 on Sunday.

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2024 PGA Championship Odds & Picks

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Justin Thomas

Justin Thomas has looked notably better and more comfortable in Rounds 2 and 3 at Valhalla, settling into a rhythm with back-to-back 67s after only going 2-under-par in Round 1. Ranked 12th strokes gained: approaching the green and 26th strokes gained: around the green, Thomas can record a top-ten finish if he winds up recording another 4-under-par round on Sunday.

The 5th hole has created trouble for Thomas, recording back-to-back bogeys on Friday and Saturday. His putting inefficiency makes this a bit of a risk, but at +120 odds for a top-ten finish, we’re getting good value in this market. Thomas is back in Louisville and playing in front of family and friends, so expect a bit of extra motivation to finish strong on Sunday afternoon.

Pick: Finishing Position Top 10 (+120)

Collin Morikawa 

The 2020 PGA Championship winner is dialed into Valhalla after contending with Scottie Scheffler through the first eight holes at Augusta National on Sunday. Collin Morikawa’s strength is his driver accuracy, ranked second on the PGA Tour in this metric. He’s also ranked 49th in total driving, 29th strokes gained: off-the-tee, and 38th strokes gained: tee-to-green.

+260 is a bit short considering where Morikawa started the week, but the integral piece to Morikawa’s outright win is him being able to avoid bogeys and bad misses on Sunday. It’s shaping up to be another strong round for the Californian, who has three consecutive rounds at 4-under-par or lower. Morikawa’s made two bogeys in the last two rounds, occurring on the par 5 18th on Friday and par 4 2nd on Saturday. He’s distanced himself from miscues and sunk two birdies in his last four holes in Round 3 to gain momentum tied with Schauffele at 15-under-par on Sunday.

His form and accuracy off-the-tee, countered with the numerous Round 4 meltdowns this season, warrants half a unit staked on Morikawa claiming his second PGA Championship victory.

Pick: Outright Winner (+260)

Viktor Hovland

After reuniting with swing coach Joe Mayo, we’ve watched 2023 FedExCup winner, Viktor Hovland, return to form at Valhalla. The Norwegian golfer has looked all out of sync in 2024, so his reunion with Mayo and the immediate success that’s followed gives flashbacks to the three wins that Hovland logged a year ago.

Hovland ranks 26th strokes gained off-the-tee, 11th strokes gained: approaching the green, and 23rd strokes gained: putting this week. His driving accuracy is 46th, which is a bit concerning, but he’s eighth finding greens in regulation, ninth scrambling, and has a 3:1 birdies to bogeys ratio.

The stage isn’t too big for Hovland, who is only two strokes off the lead at 13-under-par. +750 odds is a fantastic number for Hovland entering Round 4, so stake 0.25 units and enjoy watching his improved play down the stretch.

Pick: Outright Winner (+750)

Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.