Phillies vs. Blue Jays: MLB NRFI Odds & Picks (Tuesday)
My NRFI picks for Tuesday's full slate of games heavily rely on matchups, as nearly all of the teams will be in their negative hitting splits against the opposing pitcher.
I've also highlighted pitchers with the ability to avoid hard-hit balls, as three of the four pitchers have an average exit velo that puts them above the 70th percentile in the league. Three out of the four teams also possess an NRFI success rate of over 50% in the Blue Jays, Orioles and Padres. This is a trend that I've been putting more weight into as more data has been accumulating over the course of the season.
Though some of the offenses included aren't ones that you would consistently look to outright fade, I do believe that the combination of factors adds up for both of these games to have scoreless first innings.
Monday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets
2023 NRFI (38-34, -2.91 Units)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Pitching Matchup: Zack Wheeler vs. Yusei Kikuchi
Yusei Kikuchi will get the start for the Blue Jays tonight amid what has likely been his most successful year as a starting pitcher in the MLB. For what many (myself included) may have thought of as a softer-tossing lefty, Kikuchi has defied that by exhibiting the hardest fastball velocity that we've seen in his career, which currently ranks in the 76th percentile. That has impacted his ability to generate the swing and miss, as his whiff% and K% rank over the 60th percentile, too.
Dating back to even his past 250 batters faced tells us that he's currently in good form, as his xwOBA has consistently been trending in the positive direction over that time span. The Blue Jays are a top-10 team in terms of NRFI allowed on the season (second in overall NRFI success rate at 57%). I like Kikuchi's matchup against some of the power-hitting lefties at the top of the Phillies' lineup to keep that trend going tonight.
Zack Wheeler, whose advanced analytics suggest that he's been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball this year, will get the ball for the Phillies in this one. His 3.74 ERA is already really solid, but his 3.32 xERA tells us that he's been even better than advertised and likely on the receiving end of some unfortunate luck. He's not getting hit hard, evident by his 76th percentile xSLG, 83rd percentile barrel% and 87th percentile average exit velo. He's also getting batters to swing and miss at pitches outside the zone, illustrated by his 60th percentile whiff%, 76th percentile K% and 78th percentile chase rate. Wheeler also does not allow batters to reach on free passes, as his walk rate is an incredibly low 4.4%. Though the Blue Jays lineup can be formidable, they are neutralized somewhat by RHP, so they will be in their markedly worse hitting splits against Wheeler in this matchup.
Bet: NRFI (-120 via Caesars Sportsbook)
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