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Pistons vs. Hawks ATS Pick for 2/22 (Sports Betting)

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The Pistons continue their surge for the final playoff spot in the East as they take on the Hawks Friday night.

Current Form

Pistons
Detroit enters tonight’s matchup playing their best ball of the season. The Pistons have won five of their last seven and currently sit in a tie for the final playoff spot in the East. A healthier roster and improved continuity in Dwane Casey’s free-flowing system have been the reasons for the team’s progression. Reggie Jackson’s newfound comfort has been most notable, as Casey noted, “He’s being more efficient, smarter with the ball…He’s doing a much better job these last two or three weeks of making decisions offensively and defensively.” The return of Ish Smith and the addition of Wayne Ellington have been huge boosts for Detroit.

Hawks
The All-Star break couldn’t have come soon enough for the Hawks. Atlanta has lost four of their last five games dropping 20 games below .500. The Hawks most recent game was an embarrassing 106-91 loss to the Knicks. With the team emphasizing the development of their younger players, the Hawks have gone away from playing their veterans as much. Atlanta bought out Jeremy Lin and moved Kent Bazemore to the bench. The Hawks will continue to struggle as they rely on Trae Young and John Collins to play through their growing pains.

Edge: Pistons
Detroit is coming into tonight’s game playing great basketball and eager to get back on the court to continue their march to the playoffs. Conversely, Atlanta is reeling and more focused on player development than winning games.

Statistical Breakdown

Pistons
Over the last 10 games, Detroit has made significant strides in grasping Casey’s offense. Prior to this 10-game stretch, the Pistons had a bottom-10 offensive rating of 105.5 and a bottom-four true shooting percentage of 53.7.

However, the offense found its groove over the last 10 games. The Pistons’ offensive rating has climbed to 111.2 and their true shooting percentage has jumped to 56.8 over this stretch. Furthermore, Detroit’s offense is now doing a better job of manufacturing quality three-point shots. During this segment of time, Detroit has improved to fourth in the NBA in percentage of points from three-pointers and have seen their three-point percentage rise from 32.9% to 36.1%.

The Pistons continue to run a majority of their offense through Griffin. Griffin is in the midst of a career year, averaging 26.3 points and 8.1 rebounds on 47.9 shooting from the field. Blake has become even more of a matchup nightmare with his improved shot from beyond the arc (36.5%).

Defensively, the Pistons emphasize defending the three-point line and preventing teams from scoring in transition. Detroit is first in the league in opponent three-point percentage (33.2), fifth in opponent fast break points per game (11.9), and eighth in opponent fast break efficiency (1.65).

Hawks
The Hawks play at a break-neck speed. Atlanta leads the league in both pace (104.6) and possessions per game (107.5). Playing at this type of pace gives the younger players more possessions to develop in a style of play that suits them.

The Hawks rank eighth in percentage of points from fast breaks (13.9), ninth in fast-break points per game (15.3), and 10th in fast-break efficiency (1.84). Another key component of the team’s offense is the three-point shot. The Hawks are seventh in percentage of points from three-pointers (32.8) and fifth in three-pointers attempted per game (35). However, they only shoot 34.5% from three (25th).

Defensively, the Hawks are a work in progress. Atlanta’s roster is comprised of younger players who are still learning how to play defense at the NBA level. Subsequently, the Hawks are 28th in defensive rating (112.6), 24th in opponent three-point percentage (36.3), and 27th in opponent true shooting percentage (115.2). Additionally, the Hawks defensive ineptitude is painfully apparent through ranking 26th in personal fouls per possession (21.9).

Edge: Pistons
Yikes. This is a very bad matchup for Atlanta. First off, Atlanta will be out of their comfort zone against a Detroit team that plays the seventh-slowest pace in the league. Second, the Pistons defend the Hawks’ two main methods of scoring (three-pointers and fast-break offense) at an elite level. Third, Atlanta’s leaky three-point defense struggles against high volume three-point shooting teams like Detroit. Lastly, the Hawks don’t possess anyone capable of slowing down Griffin. John Collins isn’t strong enough and Dewayne Dedmon isn’t fast enough.

Line Analysis

The opening line for tonight’s game was -4 Detroit. Even though the Pistons have received 76% of public betting action on their spread, the line has moved in the opposite direction to -3.5 Detroit. The reverse line movement signals that the sharp bettors have decided to initially back the Hawks. However, the oddsmakers have had issues pricing Atlanta this season. The Hawks are currently 25-33 ATS which places them 27th in the league.

Edge: Even
While the Hawks have value as a home underdog receiving the sharp’s backing, there is equal value in the Pistons’ line. Detroit has covered in four of their last five games and has fared well as slight underdogs on the road.

Verdict: Pistons

The Pistons are the clear side to back tonight. Detroit comes in playing high-level basketball and has significant matchup advantages across the board. The Pistons style of play is equally suited to exploit the Hawks defensive weaknesses and inhibit their offensive strengths. Take Detroit -3.5 in a comfortable win Friday night.

Jeremy Homler is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jeremy, check out his archive.