Pistons vs. Pelicans ATS Pick for 1/23 (Sports Betting)

Unfortunately, the most profitable and most exciting game is often not the same. It is usually the overlooked game barely spoken about that contains the real value. For tonight, look no further than the small-market matchup at Little Caesars Arena for the pick of the night.

Current Form

Pistons
The Pistons wander aimlessly into tonight’s matchup six games under .500 and two games out of the playoff picture. They have been plagued by their inability to string together consistent stretches of quality basketball. After dropping a heartbreaker to Sacramento on Saturday, Detroit looked lifeless in Monday’s blowout loss to Washington. Andre Drummond remains in concussion protocol and is doubtful for tonight’s game. Detroit will rely on Blake Griffin even more in Drummond’s absence. The Pistons will play this game on one day’s rest (10-19 record in such situations).

Pelicans
New Orleans is in the midst of a crucial stretch. The Pelicans look to remain in the playoff race despite Anthony Davis’ finger injury. With a top-heavy roster, the Pelicans have historically struggled without their superstar. However, they come into tonight’s game riding high after an impressive rout in Memphis. In Davis’ absence, New Orleans relied on a successful team effort. New Orleans will again need a balanced performance to stand any chance of beating Detroit, as Davis remains unavailable tonight with a finger sprain. The Pelicans are 15-15 on one day’s rest.

Edge: Even
With both teams missing their starting center, it is difficult to pinpoint which one comes into tonight’s matchup in better shape. It is hard to put a lot of stock into the Pelicans’ better record on one day’s rest, as most of those wins came with Davis in the lineup. Additionally, both teams desperately need this win, as neither squad wants to slip any further in the playoff race.

Statistical Breakdown

Pistons
Under new leadership, the Pistons have modernized their offense through a three-point centric attack. Detroit’s offense ranks eighth in percentage of points from three-pointers (31.8%) and 11th in three-pointers made per game (11.2). Griffin perfectly embodies the team’s philosophical shift. He is averaging career highs in both three-point field goals attempted per game (6.6) and three-point percentage (36.3%). In this new offense, he is also averaging a career-high 26.0 points per game and ranks fifth in free throws attempted per game (7.95). Furthermore, the Pistons have also modernized their defense by putting a strong emphasis on defending the three-point line. Detroit boasts the NBA’s best opposing three-point percentage (32.7%) and has yielded the fewest three-point makes per game (9.1).

Contrary to popular belief, Drummond’s absence will actually benefit the Pistons. An inconsistent defender and a detrimentally bad offensive player, rebounding is Drummond’s only elite skill. Among players who average over four post-ups per game, Drummond is last in field-goal percentage (38%), second-to-last in assists per game (0.1), and second to last in turnover percentage (10.3%) when operating out of the post. Despite these poor numbers, Drummond still ranks 16th in the NBA in post-ups per game (4.9). He also shoots 49.8% from the field, which is incredibly low for a rim-running big.

Pelicans
The Pelicans have an explosive offense. They play at the league’s fifth-fastest pace (103.2) and rank third in points per game (117.1). New Orleans is fourth in average free-throw attempts (25.9) and first in points from two-pointers (66.9). Additionally, the Pelicans don’t utilize the three-point shot, as they sit 29th in percentage of points from triples (25.8%).

However, Davis is the pillar that holds up the Pelicans’ offense. He ranks fourth in free-throw attempts per game (9.1) and has scored a blistering 29.3 points per game, most of which comes from two-point range. Without Davis, New Orleans’ offense slips from a top-three unit to outside of the top ten (113.8 PPG).

Defensively, AD’s loss cuts even deeper. Davis anchors the team’s defensive unit through his elite rim protection. He ranks seventh in the NBA in opposing field-goal percentage within six feet of the rim (62.3%). Even with the Unibrow, the Pelicans are 26th in opposing points per game (115.1) and rank in the bottom 10 in points allowed in the paint (49.2). New Orleans also struggles to defend the three-point shot, ranking 26th in three-point percentage (36.6%).

Edge: Pistons
Even though both teams are missing their starting centers, only one of their absences will truly be felt. Detroit has a significantly better offense with Drummond off the court, and his defensive absence is barely noticeable. Conversely, the Pelicans’ offensive and defensive schemes depend completely on Davis. Without him, the Pelicans go from a below-average defense to an awful one. Additionally, Detroit’s offensive attack is built around the three-point shot, which is something New Orleans struggles to defend.

Line Analysis

The opening line for this game was -4 New Orleans. The Pelicans have received 66% of bets placed on the spread, but the line hasn’t moved. This lack of movement indicates that the sharps have found some value in Detroit receiving four points. I don’t expect this game to receive a ton of action. Both teams are in smaller markets, and the biggest star (Davis) won’t suit up. As long as the sharps continue to back Detroit, the line should shift to around three points by tip-off.

Edge: Pistons
There is value in Detroit receiving four points. Given the uncertainties in this matchup (Drummond’s availability, the Pelicans playing without Davis), there is value in receiving any amount of points. The Pistons’ line has also received early backing from the sharp bettors.

Verdict: Pistons

The market has undervalued Davis’ absence and overvalued Drummond’s. Without Drummond disrupting the offensive flow, the Pistons should thrive against a porous Pelicans’ defense. The Pelicans may keep this game close, but their inability to defend Detroit from beyond the arc will ultimately be their demise. Take Detroit +4 in a game they have a great chance of winning outright.

All stats courtesy of TeamRankings.com and NBA.com.