Pittsburgh Panthers at Miami Hurricanes Odds & Game Pick (2020)
While the juggernaut darlings of the ACC look well on their way to another conference title, and newcomer Notre Dame likely taking the second spot, third-place certainly appears up for grabs.
Looking at a schedule exclusively against conference foes, Pittsburgh and Miami both got off to strong starts followed by stumbles that have them in desperate need of a win.
Let’s take a closer look at this ACC showdown between two programs determined to get back to their winning ways of the past.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Details
- Opening Lines: Miami -10.5; OU 52
- Current Line: Miami -13.5
- O/U: 47.5
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
- Start Time: 12:00 pm ET
- Television: ACCN
- Last Meeting: October 26, 2019- Miami 16, Pittsburgh 12
Overview
After a 3-0 start that included a big home win over Louisville, it looked by all accounts that Pitt was ready to compete in the ACC behind now four-year starter quarterback Kenny Pickett. That was until two one-point losses, most recently last week on the road at Boston College in overtime, landed them at 3-2 heading into their biggest game of the young season.
Making matters worse, Pickett sustained a nasty ankle injury in last week’s defeat and if he does play at all, will be far from 100% against the team he started his college career off beating as a true freshman. If the Panthers expect to have a shot on Saturday, they’ll have to lean on their defense which has been strong to start the season, ranking first or in the top five in sacks (25), rushing yards per game (52), and rush yards per attempt (1.7).
One area that Pitt has been exploited, which Miami will look to cash in on, is the secondary. Though they have games against Austin Peay and Syracuse that help their averages, recent performances against NC State and Boston College, show passing games of 336 yards and 358 yards respectively, to go along with a combined seven touchdowns allowed through the air.
Music to D’Eriq King’s ears.
Before last week’s game against the clear #1 team in college football, Clemson, King had yet to throw an interception and had this Miami team humming along to the tune of 43 points per game.
On the defensive side of the ball, UCLA transfer Jalen Phillips has been a strong addition for a Hurricanes unit that has shown significant improvement through their first four games this season. A scary proposition for a Pitt team who has to go back three seasons for the last quarter in which they scored a touchdown against the Hurricanes.
- The Hurricanes are 4-0 in their last four after giving up 40+ points
- The Hurricanes are 6-2 ATS in their last eight following a loss of 20+ points
- The Under is 11-1 in Pitt’s last 12 games as a road underdog
Bottom Line
Though we’ve certainly missed the best of this number, I still think the Hurricanes have value laying anything inside two touchdowns. While there might be some doubt seeded in a Miami team that got perceivably blown out in primetime last week, the score wasn’t representative of the box score and this offense is too good for back to back awful performances.
An improved Miami line should at least be able to slow down arguably the best pass rush (4.8 sacks per game) in the country in Pitt, and King’s elusiveness outside of the pocket is something they’ve yet to see this season.
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TJ Perun is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from TJ, check out his archive and follow him @JohnnyCovers.