Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens Odds & Game Pick
With the Baltimore Ravens locking up first seed in the AFC, they will be resting their starters for Week 17. This is a major boost to the Pittsburgh Steelers’ playoff chances, but they will still need the Tennessee Titans to lose to the Houston Texans. Their loss to the Jets last week has put them in the same position they were in last season, once again needing both a win of their own and a loss from another team in order to make the postseason. With their first and second string quarterbacks on injured reserve, the Steelers may still have a tough time in this contest. Let’s dig in.
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Details
- Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -2.5 on the Baltimore Ravens. The consensus over/under total opened at 41 points. The point spread has seen a complete reverse and now sits at -2 on the Steelers. The over/under total has dropped to 38.
- Current Line: Pittsburgh -2
- O/U: 38
- Location: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland
- Start Time: 4:00 PM EST, Sunday, December 29
- Last Meeting: Baltimore defeated Pittsburgh 26-23 — October 6, 2019
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Overview
The 8-7 Pittsburgh Steelers may have squandered their playoff hopes with an inexplicable Week 16 loss to the New York Jets. As mentioned above, they need to win and hope that the Titans lose in order to secure a postseason berth. The Steelers’ march to a potential playoff appearance has been nothing short of spectacular. Already down two-thirds of the Killer Bs with Antonio Brown traded to the Raiders and free-agent running back Le’Veon Bell signing with the Jets, Pittsburgh has been able to survive a season-ending injury to Ben Roethlisberger due to the high-level play of their defensive unit. T.J. Watt has been excellent, rookie Devin Bush has finally addressed the Ryan Shazier-sized hole in the linebacking corps, and trade acquisition Minkah Fitzpatrick has been a game-changer.
Their offense has held them back, but that is to be expected when your second-string quarterback was playing poorly enough to warrant an extended look at your undrafted third-string quarterback. JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Conner have both spent extended periods sidelined with injuries, further exacerbating their offensive woes. Pittsburgh is going to have to solve the Ravens’ defense in order to have a chance in this contest, but their defense should be able to severely limit the effectiveness of both Robert Griffin III and Trace McSorley.
The Baltimore Ravens are 13-2 on the season and have locked up the top seed in the AFC. As a result of having nothing to play for this week, the Ravens will be resting Lamar Jackson, Earl Thomas, Brandon Williams, and Marshal Yanda for this weekend’s contest against the Steelers. The Ravens have also discussed playing third-string quarterback Trace McSorley at some point in the game. As a result, the consensus point spread for this contest actually favors the Steelers. The Ravens have been outstanding this season and have not lost since Week 4.
Star running back Mark Ingram was injured in Week 16, but is expected to be back in time for the Ravens’ first playoff game. It should not be surprising if they also play Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews for fewer snaps than usual. It will be interesting to see how well the Ravens’ offense moves without some of its best pieces.
Trends
- The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six contests between these two teams.
- The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four contests between these two teams.
- Under is 5-0 in their last five contests between these two teams played in Baltimore.
- Pittsburgh is 9-6 ATS on the season.
- Pittsburgh is 4-3 ATS on the road this season.
- Baltimore is 9-6 ATS on the season.
- Baltimore is 3-4 ATS at home this season.
- Pittsburgh is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 contests.
- Pittsburgh is 5-2 ATS in their last seven contests against teams with winning records.
- Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in their last five contests against the AFC North.
- Pittsburgh is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 contests overall.
- Baltimore is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 contests.
- Baltimore is 8-1 ATS in their last nine contests.
- Baltimore is 5-1 ATS in their last six contests against teams with winning records.
- Baltimore is 2-7 ATS in their last nine contests against the AFC North.
- The under is 6-1 in Pittsburgh’s last seven contests against the AFC North,
- The under is 4-0 in Pittsburgh’s last four contests as a favorite.
- The under is 5-0 in Pittsburgh’s last five contests following a loss.
- The under is 5-0 in Pittsburgh’s last five December contests.
- The over is 5-2 in Baltimore’s last seven contests against the AFC North.
- The under is 5-2 in Baltimore’s last seven December contests.
- The under is 5-2 in Baltimore’s last seven home contests against teams with winning road records.
- The under is 9-4 in Baltimore’s last 13 contests as a home underdog.
Prop Bets
Diontae Johnson over 40.5 receiving yards (-115)
The sportsbooks are currently confused in regards to what props to put up due to the uncertainty of which players will be playing for the Ravens, and who will be starting under center for the Steelers. Regardless of who will be on the field for the Ravens’ defense, Diontae Johnson is a strong bet to surpass 40.5 receiving yards. Marcus Peters appears a little banged up and may very well be held out of Sunday’s contest or play extremely limited snaps. Earl Thomas has already been ruled out for rest and health purposes, further weakening the secondary.
Johnson wins with his precise route running and will get open enough to clear this total. The Ravens’ secondary is ferocious, but is already trending towards missing at least two of their key players. Lock this one in before the books wise up and make this a -200 line.
Bottom Line
The consensus point spread for this contest sits at -2 on Pittsburgh. It opened at -2.5 on Baltimore, but the Steelers were made favorites when the Ravens announced that they would indeed be resting some of their top stars for Week 17. There is minimal edge in this contest. All of the Ravens’ trends are meaningless with Lamar Jackson on the sidelines. The Steelers should win this contest, but with how poorly Devlin Hodges had played as of late, going up against the Ravens’ defense is not exactly a recipe for success.
The win probability against the spread for these two teams is so close to even that the spread is a complete fade. The over/under is where the true appeal lied, but the line has already seen a three-point drop from its open of 41. Still, with the Ravens already stating their intention to play Trace McSorley at some point in the game and the likelihood this contest morphs into a defensive battle, the under carries a significant enough win probability to be worth considering action on.
There was already trend data to support the under for this contest even prior to the Ravens officially ruling out some of their starters. The Steelers have seen six of their last seven contests against the AFC North go under. Baltimore has seen the under hit in five of their last seven contests against teams with winning records. Punch in the under as a one-unit play at 38.5 at FanDuel before the total drops to 38 or lower.
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Check out our other NFL Sports Betting Guides for Week 17
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (+3)
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+13.5)
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+12.5)
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (+6)
Washington at Dallas Cowboys (-12.5)
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (+3.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1)
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-16.5)
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5)
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-1)
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (+3)
Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.