Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns Odds and Game Pick (2021)

The table is set for the Cleveland Browns to clinch a playoff spot for the first time since 2002.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have done them an enormous favor by announcing Ben Roethlisberger, Maurkice Pouncey, T.J. Watt, and Casey Heyward will sit out Sunday afternoon.

That’s why the Browns enter this must-win game favored by 9.5 points over their division rivals. Can they get the job done and get the cover in their regular-season finale? Let’s breakdown this pivotal matchup.

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Details

• Opening Line: Cleveland -8.5
• Last meeting: October 18, 2020, Steelers 38-7

	PIT	+9.5 -110	o42 -110	+334
VIEW PICKS	CLE	-9.5 -110	u42 -110	-420

View consensus picks and matchup notes from top betting experts for the Steelers vs. Browns >>

Overview

Mason Rudolph will get the start for the Steelers as they set their sights on a postseason showdown with the Buffalo Bills. The Steelers could clinch the No. 2 seed in the playoffs with a win and a Bills loss. However, home-field advantage means a bit less than it normally does with no fans in the stadium.

Rudolph is a pedestrian backup quarterback, and that might be putting it nicely. In eight starts last season, Rudolph went 5-3 and threw for 1,765 yards, 13 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. It looks like he’ll have receivers Diontae Johnson, Juju Smith-Schuster, and Chase Claypool to at least start the game, which will certainly help.

Pittsburgh’s biggest problems all season have been the decline of its offensive line and a non-existent running game. The Steelers rank dead-last on the ground, which could be its Achilles’ heel come playoff time.

The Browns will also be without a handful of players thanks to COVID-19. The Browns were without their top four receivers in last week’s loss to the New York Jets. While those pass-catchers were activated off the COVID-19 reserve list this week, the Browns will now be without cornerback Denzel Ward, linebacker B.J. Goodson, safety Andrew Sendejo, and tight end Harrison Bryant on Sunday. The Browns also had to close their facilities and cancel Thursday’s practice due to positive tests. They’ve since reopened their facility.

Cleveland should find plenty of success on the ground against Pittsburgh’s short-handed defense. The Steelers were already banged up at linebacker and will struggle even more without Watt and Heyward along the front seven. With the playoffs on the line, I’d expect coach Kevin Stefanski to rely heavily on his tailback duo of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.

Bottom Line 

It’s hard to get a feel for this game. The Steelers have gone through a gauntlet schedule thanks to COVID-19 issues. The Steelers haven’t had a week off since the beginning of October, and fatigue probably played a role in the team’s poor play to close the season.

Part of me thinks the Steelers just need rest. Before making a bet, I’d keep a close eye on the inactive list leading up to Sunday’s game, as more Steelers starters could be ruled out. I also expect Tomlin to pull guys at halftime as his team looks ahead to Buffalo.

All that being said, I can’t lay 9.5 with Cleveland in arguably the franchise’s biggest game in 18 years. The COVID interruptions should be factored in. Plus, Pittsburgh’s backups will still be highly motivated to end a division rival’s season.

My plan for this game is to take the Steelers in the first half, then look to bet Cleveland live or in the second half depending on how things play out.

The Pick: Steelers +5.5 first half. Look for Cleveland second half.

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