Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns Odds & Game Pick

by Zach Brunner |
Nov 13, 2019

In the first matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cleveland Browns of the season, these two AFC North foes will face off on Thursday Night Football at FirstEnergy Stadium.

Both teams have faced adversity this season, with quarterback issues and issues with team identity. However, the experience of the Steelers has been able to weather the course, entering the game with a 5-4 record. On the other side, Cleveland has received much criticism after being over-hyped in the preseason, entering this game with just three wins.

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Steelers vs Browns Odds and Info

All odds taken from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Opening Lines: CLE -2.5, O/U 40.5
Moneyline: PIT: (+124) | CLE: (-142)
Spread: PIT: +2.5 (+105) | CLE: -2.5 (-125)
Total: 40 â€“ Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
Location: FirstEnergy Stadium â€“ Cleveland, OH
Start Time: 8:20 p.m. EST
Coverage: FOX

Injuries

Pittsburgh Steelers: RB Benny Snell (D), FB Roosevelt Nix (Q), WR Ryan Switzer (Q), G Ramon Foster (Q), LB Anthony Chickillo (Q)
Cleveland Browns: TE Ricky Seals-Jones (Q), DE Oliver Vernon (Q), S Eric Murray (Q)

View consensus picks from 100+ experts for the Steelers at Browns >>

Overview

While it has not looked pretty, the Pittsburgh Steelers have found a way to right the ship, winning four games in a row. Their success begins with the improved play of their defense, who have held these four opponents to just 16.75 points per game. Over this span, they have also totaled 14 sacks and 14 forced turnovers, helping out their offense, which has looked mediocre under quarterback Mason Rudolph. He has just one multi-touchdown game over his last four weeks and has passed for over 250 yards just once this season. With big plays being a rarity in this new look, conservative Steelersâ€™ offense, they could be in trouble in games where they need to play catch-up.

Coming off their first win since September, the Browns are hoping they can build on this momentum and win back-to-back games for the first time this season. Defensively, the Browns have been average overall but struggle to stop the run consistently. They allow 4.9 yards per carry, which is the fourth-most in the league. Offensively, the only sign of consistency is running back Nick Chubb, who has totaled at least 75 yards in every game this season. Cleveland also got another big backfield threat on the field last week with Kareem Hunt making his Brownsâ€™ debut. They played him in the backfield, the slot, and even split out wide, leading to him seeing nine targets in the passing game. He will turn into a dangerous weapon for Baker Mayfield, who has really struggled this season despite throwing to Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry. He has thrown nine touchdowns to just 12 interceptions, but he has not thrown an interception in the last two weeks, which are the only two weeks this season heâ€™s accomplished that feat. Baker also completed a season-high 68.4 percent of his passes and threw multiple touchdowns for the first time all season in Week 10. A lot of that had to do with the presence of Hunt as a receiver, giving his quarterback easy plays to make. The play in Cleveland is certainly on the rise, and the Browns could soon become the team many projected them to be entering the season.

Trends

Pittsburgh is averaging 21.4 points per game (PPG) this season (No. 19 in the NFL).
Pittsburgh is surrendering 20.1 PPG this season (No. 10 in the NFL).
Pittsburgh is 5-1-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last seven games.
Cleveland is averaging 19.0 PPG this season (No. 26 in the NFL).
Cleveland is surrendering 24.6 PPG this season (No. 21 in the NFL).
Cleveland is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games.
The Steelers lead the all-time series with the Browns, 75-58-1.
Last Meeting: October 28, 2018 â€” The Steelers defeated the Browns, 33-18, at Heinz Field.

Prop Bet

All odds taken from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Jarvis Landry â€“ Receiving Yards: Over 59.5 (-112)
Landry has seen his targets rise in the three games following Clevelandâ€™s bye, averaging 11 targets per game and totaling at least 10 in every game. This is up from his 7.3 average during the first six games. This has led to Landry hitting over this receiving total in two of the last three games.

He has a decent matchup with Mike Hilton in the slot in this game, who has given up a 67.7 percent catch rate. With the Steelersâ€™ defensive front being tough, giving up just 3.9 yards per carry (tied for seventh-best), Cleveland may opt to pass a bit more often, leading to greater opportunity for Landry.

Bottom Line

With both quarterbacks playing less-than-impressive football this season and both defenses having holes that can be exploited, I think the outcome of this game comes down to the running back play on both sides. For Pittsburgh, they get James Conner back from a shoulder injury and have the versatile Jaylen Samuels, who operates mostly as a pass-catcher. For Cleveland, they have the talented runner in Nick Chubb and explosive weapon Kareem Hunt. When looking at these four backs as a whole, there are only two that have the skill set to take over a game, and they both happen to be in Brownsâ€™ uniforms. The Steelersâ€™ backs are very good, but they need the rest of their team to put them in a position to succeed. For Chubb and Hunt, they are both capable of running through defenders or making them miss. They also have the ability to break off a chunk play at any point in the game from anywhere on the field. Look for Cleveland to play them both at the same time as well, making this offense as a whole much more dangerous. Those two will make enough plays on the ground and through the air to win this game for the Dawg Pound.

Pick: Cleveland Browns -2.5