Premier League Matchday 16 Odds, Picks & Prediction (2024)
Teams return to their domestic assignments this weekend after some thrilling midweek action on the continental front. All 20 Premier League teams are set to take the pitch this weekend, and below, I've narrowed in on three of the matches from a betting perspective. Here are my three favorite bets in the PL this weekend.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Premier League Matchday 16 Preview & Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Chelsea (-310) vs. Brentford (+700), DRAW (+475) | O/U 3.5 (-125/+100)
We have a thrilling top-half matchup on Sunday afternoon between Chelsea and Brentford. The Blues enter this weekend at 9-4-2 (31 points), which trails only first-place Liverpool (35 points). The Bees reside in ninth place at 7-2-6 (23 points). Kickoff is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. ET from Stamford Bridge in London.
These are two of the better offenses in the Premier League, so I won't overthink this one - give me the over. Chelsea has been lighting it up offensively this season, ranking first in both goals scored (35) and xG (32.0). Meanwhile, Brentford is right behind them in scoring with 31 tallies. They're also eighth in xG at 23.8 expected goals.
The Bees have seen at least four combined goals in each of their last three matches, averaging 5.0 goals per match during the stretch. As for the Blues, they've scored 3+ goals in each of their last four matches across all competitions. With how these offenses click, it feels like a 2-2 draw is the floor. I'm taking the over.
Bet: Over 3.5 (-125)
Southampton (+340) vs. Tottenham (-145), DRAW (+350) | O/U 3.5 (-130/+105)
It has been a forgettable campaign for Southampton, as they currently reside in the league’s cellar at 1-2-12 (5 points). They're tasked with collecting points at home against 11th-place Tottenham, who come into this Sunday contest at 6-2-7 (20 points). Kickoff is set for 2:00 p.m. ET from St. Mary's Stadium in Southampton.
Neither of these clubs has been in their best form lately, but this should be an excellent bounce-back spot for Spurs. Tottenham has gone winless in their last five matches (0-3-2) across all competitions, but they've faced some tough opposition over the stretch. Since they're taking on the league's worst team, I think they at least escape with a victory on Sunday.
Meanwhile, Southampton has lost four of their last five matches (0-1-4), getting out-scored 12-4 over the five-game sample size. The Saints have the second-worst defense regarding goals conceded (31), while they're ranked dead last in the PL in xGA (34.6). They've only played 15 matches, so their xGA/G is 2.31! If Tottenham can hit the two-goal threshold in this one, we should at least come away with a push on this Spurs -1.0 bet. But I believe the ceiling is much higher, and we could be looking at a blowout winner. Give me the Lilywhites -1.0.
Bet: Tottenham -1.0 (+100)
Bournemouth (-140) vs. West Ham (+340), DRAW (+320) | O/U 3.5 (+125/-160)
The matchday 16 action wraps up on Monday with an interesting matchup between Bournemouth and West Ham. The Cherries have climbed to eighth in the table at 7-3-5 (24 points), while the Irons enter the weekend at 14th in the standings at 5-3-7 (18 points). This matchday finale begins at 3:00 p.m. ET from Vitality Stadium in Bournemouth.
The Cherries are on a nice little run right now, as they've captured victories in three straight matches. Considering they're at home, where they're a respectable 4-1-2, I'll take them to secure three more points on Monday.
One metric that stands out to me here is that Bournemouth is second in the league in xG at 30.4 expected goals. They're taking on a West Ham side that's just 13th in goals scored (20) and 11th in xG (21.5). The Irons have also conceded 28 goals, which is the fourth-worst mark in the PL. If the home side can continue to produce quality scoring chances, then there's a good chance that they will come away victorious in front of their home crowd.
Bet: Bournemouth Moneyline (-140)