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Raiders vs. Broncos NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 12)

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Introducing the Week 12 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 12 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Raiders vs. Broncos.

Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 12 Betting Primer>>

Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders

Sides:

  • The Broncos are 7-7 ATS on the road from 2023 (5-3 ATS last eight road games).
  • They are 9-7-1 as road underdogs (52%).
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in six of their last nine games as home underdogs.
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in seven of their last nine games.
  • The Broncos have won seven of their last eight home games against NFC opponents.
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in six of their last seven games following a loss.
  • The Raiders have covered the spread in eight of their last 14 games.
  • The Raiders are 12-7-1 ATS over their last 20 games.
  • LV is 13-6-1 ATS at home (67%). They are 5-3-1 as home underdogs ATS but just 2-6 straight up.
  • The Raiders have covered the spread in five of their last nine road games.
  • The Raiders have lost 11 of their last 13 road games.
  • The Raiders have covered the spread in their last eight home games against the Broncos.
  • The Raiders have scored last in their last six games against the Broncos.

Totals:

  • The Broncos rank third in red zone defense.
  • Five of the Broncos' last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Broncos' last 15 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Fifteen of the Broncos' last 23 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Four of the Broncos’ last seven road games against NFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Denver is 3-2 O/U at home this season. They are averaging 39 points per game.
  • Ten of the Raiders' last 20 games have gone UNDER the total points line, and they are 14-12 toward the under.
  • Five of the Raiders' last 10 road games have gone UNDER the total points line per DraftKings Sportsbook.
  • Five of the Raiders’ last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Five of the Raiders’ last six home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • They are 3-1 toward the over at home, with games averaging 46.5 points per game.

Overall:

The Raiders have lost each of their last six games, with their opponents jumping out to 15 points first in all contests.

Meanwhile, the Broncos are riding high after another big win.

Denver hasn't lost a game or failed to cover a spread as favorites this season. Bo Nix is 4-0 ATS as a favorite, and I see no reason why he can't extend that streak to five games on the road against the Raiders.

The Broncos' defense remains a top-notch unit that is going to present problems for Gardner Minshew. No. 3-ranked defense in terms of EPA/play allowed

The Raiders are 2-2 ATS at home this season, losing outright as a favorite to the Panthers back in Week 3. They beat the Browns and covered against the Chiefs – but we know KC hasn’t performed well ATS all year.

The Raiders’ last two covers have been of the backdoor variety, which is not easily replicated. The Broncos are allowing the second-fewest points per game in the second half of games this season.

As for the total, I initially thought this might be a sneaky spot for the game to go OVER the total. Raiders home games have been trending toward overs.

But Denver’s suffocating defense is a factor I’m not willing to ignore for a Raiders trend.

In the Broncos’ last five games, one game has surpassed 44 points. I could very much see a 42-point (finish 27-17 score etc.).

The Broncos blitz at the highest rate in the NFL (41.6%) and are one of two teams to blitz on over 40% of early downs (Vikings).

Despite this, they are the only team in the NFL to generate pressure at a lower rate when blitzing (38.4%) than when rushing four or fewer (38.7%). The Raiders have allowed the highest unblocked pressure rate (23.5%) and have generated the 4th fewest EPA (-38.1) when facing the blitz.

I think the sharp play is just to lay the six points with the Broncos. We already saw the Broncos beat LV as 3-point favorites earlier this season, 34-18, despite going down 10-0 from the get-go.

Props:

Ameer Abdullah - whenever his props drop, take the over on his receiving numbers. He will likely start this week with injuries to Alexander Mattison and Zamir White.

The last time the Raiders played the Broncos, Gardner Minshew was benched. He has only hit over 33.5 pass attempts in three of nine games this season, none of which have come at home. Even if he plays the full game, there is no guarantee he will pass 33-plus times. My only concern is that the Raiders are extremely banged up at RB, so it's something to monitor.

My Picks:

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