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Raiders vs. Browns NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 4)

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Introducing the Week 4 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 4 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Raiders vs. Browns.

Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 4 Betting Primer>>

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Cleveland Browns

Sides:

  • The Raiders have covered the spread in five of their last seven games.
  • The Raiders are 9-3-1 ATS over their last 13 games.
  • The Browns have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games.
  • The Browns have won eight of their last 11 games as favorites and are 9-4 as a favorite.
  • The Browns are 6-7-1 ATS in their last 14 road appearances as underdogs.
  • Vegas is 4-1 as home underdogs.

Totals:

  • Ten of the Browns’ last 11 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Five of the Browns’ last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Browns' last 11 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Browns are 12-8-1 toward the over in their last 20 games.
  • Seven of the Raiders' last 13 games have gone UNDER the total points line, 12-8 toward the under.

Overall:

The Browns opened as slight favorites, but the lines flipped toward the Raiders -2 at home.

It's a matchup between two teams, both heading in the wrong direction. And there's a lot of injuries. Raider star pass rusher Maxx Crosby is dealing with a high ankle sprain.

Meanwhile, Browns OG Wyatt Teller is out. Tackle Jack Conklin might return, but tackle Jedrick Wills was re-injured in Week 3. Tight end David Njoku remains out.

The OL is a major issue, and it's shown up in the worst way, with Deshaun Watson consistently under pressure. But the Raiders, with a hobbled Crosby, might not be able to get home as much as they'd like. Through three games, the Raiders have the fourth-worst pressure rate in the NFL.

And although Watson is a sack machine, his mobility allows him to extend plays and pick up first downs. I don't think this a "smash" spot for the Browns offense by any means, but the Raiders defense has hardly lived up to the billing as their strength of their team after being shredded by Andy Dalton in Week 3.

The Raiders offense fell into a trap last week, being baited into running the ball (unsuccessfully) against a bad Panthers run defense. But when you stop doing what works for you offensively solely to take advantage of a defense, it's not +EV, especially when you've shown zero semblance of a rushing attack all season.

I'd presume that the Raiders get back on track with a positive PROE in Week 4.

When you pair that projection with the Browns' third-ranked PROE, well, you get the ingredients (albeit gross) for a sneaky shootout. Or at least one that goes over a total as low as 37.5 with the game being played in dome conditions. Also, QBs under pressure can lead to short fields and turnovers.

As for the sides, I'm going with the Browns on the money line. For starters, I'm not convinced that the better quarterback is favored in this game. And second, the Raiders have struggled thus far playing with expectations. Last season after Antonio Pierce took over, there were no expectations for the team. They overachieved. Now, with more on their plates, it's been tough sledding to start the year.

The Browns’ defense has the biggest advantage in this game over the Raiders’ offense, and that's why I ultimately settled on Cleveland to come away with the road upset.

Player Props:

Deshaun Watson has passed for at least 19.5 pass completions in three straight games. He's gone over this number in six of his last nine games dating back to the start of last season. Quarterbacks who have faced the Raiders this season have averaged over 21 completions per game.

My Picks:

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