Rams vs. Raiders NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 7)
Introducing the Week 7 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 7 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Rams vs. Raiders.
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Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Rams
Sides
- The Raiders have covered the spread in six of their last 10 games.
- The Raiders are 10-5-1 ATS over their last 16 games.
- LV is 12-6-1 ATS at home. They are 4-3-1 as a home underdogs ATS. But just 2-5 straight up.
- The Raiders have covered the spread in four of their last six road games.
- The Raiders have lost eight of their last 10 road games.
- The Rams 2023 starters are 2-10 as underdogs straight up. 1-4 as underdogs this season (2-3 ATS) after their massive win against the 49ers.
- The favorites have won 15 of the Rams' last 16 games.
Totals:
- Nine of the Raiders' last 16 games have gone UNDER the total points line and 13-9 toward the under.
- Four of the Raiders' last seven road games have gone UNDER the total points line per DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Eight of the Rams' last 12 games with their starters have gone OVER the total points line.
- The Rams are 10-8 toward the O/U in their last 18 games.
- Against offenses other than the Browns, Cardinals, Seahawks, or injury-plagued Bengals, the Rams allowed at least 20 points on defense in every game in 2023. Only five times since the start of 2023 has the defense allowed fewer than 300 yards of offense.
Overall:
The Rams are coming off a much-needed bye week, with reinforcements returning to their starting lineup. WR Cooper Kupp is expected to return after suffering an ankle injury earlier this season. Tackle Joe Noteboom might also make his return.
The last time we saw L.A., they fell just short of a victory against the Green Bay Packers at home, losing 24-19. But a deeper look at that matchup inspires confidence in this Rams team moving forward. They held the Packers to one conversion on third down (1 for 8). They outgained the Packers in total yards. Losing the turnover battle hurt them the most as did failing to punch the ball in the red zone on a first and goal from the 8-yard line. However, the pick-six leveled the playing field.
Regardless, this offense moved the ball efficiently into Packers' territory on every single drive. With Kupp back in action and a strong run game fueled by a rested Kyren Williams, I like the Rams offense.
The Rams defense is obviously the main concern regarding their ability to cover the 6.5-point home spread.
But the Raiders don't have much to work with on offense. Davante Adams is a Jet. Jakobi Meyers is still hurt. They can't run the ball against any opponent. And the Rams' biggest strength on defense regarding rushing the passer can exploit the Raiders. LA ranks 8th in pressure rate.
I'm not going to overthink this one. Sean McVay, off a bye week, gives the Rams a significant edge over this undermanned Raiders squad. Favorites tend to prevail in Rams' contests, and I see no reason to go away from that trend in this matchup.
The Rams’ offense has every advantage against the Raiders’ porous defense, and I'm unsure Las Vegas has the firepower to strike back. LA's defense showed a little bit of something against the Packers and Rams by limiting third-down conversions, and that should help them dominate this contest.
As for the total, I liked the under early in the week at 44 points. It's down to 43.5 points, and I'll continue to hammer it because I just don't have much faith in the Raiders’ offense behind an immobile second-year quarterback. The Raiders offense tends to disappoint on the road - aside from the Baltimore game earlier this season.
Props:
If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Aidan O'Connell doesn't run. Per Next Gen Stats, O'Connell has not attempted a single scramble rush on any of his 442 dropbacks since entering the NFL in 2023. O’Connell is the only quarterback in the Next Gen Stats era to not record a single scramble rush attempt on any dropback (min. 150 dropbacks).
Kyren Williams scored a touchdown in all five games this season and scored seven TD overall. Kyren Williams has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last eight regular season appearances.
My Picks:
- Rams -6.5
- Under 43.5