Ravens vs. Raiders NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 2)
Introducing the Week 1 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 1 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Ravens and Raiders.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 2 Betting Primer>>
Baltimore Ravens vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-9.5)
Sides:
- The Raiders are 8-2-1 ATS over their last 11 games.
- The Raiders have covered the spread in four of their last five games.
- Baltimore is 11-4 on the money line as home favorites. But just 6-10 ATS as home favorites.
- Lamar Jackson is 48.4% ATS as a favorite per BetMGM.
- Gardner Minshew is 36% ATS as an underdog.
- The Raiders have lost seven of their last eight road games.
Totals:
- Seven of the Raiders' last 11 games have gone UNDER the total points line, 12-6 toward the under (67%).
- Four of the Raiders’ last five road games have gone UNDER the total points line per DraftKings Sportbook.
- The majority of the 2023 Ravens games that went OVER came at home (five of their last seven). But they tended to be against better offenses.
- The Ravens have gone OVER in four of the last six games (five of the previous nine).
Overall:
There's no doubt that the Ravens left Thursday's night game against the Chiefs with a bitter taste in their mouth, falling a toe short of a road victory (and cover). Lucky for them, I can't think of a better bounce-back spot for them to let out their frustration than against a lowly Raiders team fresh from a divisional loss to the Chargers.
But that's where the potential issue comes into play with the Ravens covering this massive spread. Baltimore, time and time again, play down to their competition at times. Against good/winning teams, they bring out their best. Against teams like the Raiders, I could very much see them taking their foot off the gas. Either way, this is a spot where Derrick Henry could feast, but it might not be till the second half that we see the Ravens pull away. It might make sense to take Baltimore ATS LIVE if the number drops in the first half.
The strength of the Raiders is still their defense, and Baltimore’s dropback passing game is still a work in progress. Despite the big plays they allowed against the run, LV only allowed 11 first downs against the Chargers.
It's exactly why you should fade Jackson's passing attempts prop (30.5), given they can feed Henry in the second half playing at home. Lamar went over 30 pass attempts thrice at home last season. One was in last year's AFC Championship game, and the other two games went into overtime. He's not throwing 30-plus times versus Las Vegas.
The point total is too large for my liking, with a backdoor cover by the Raiders my biggest fear. Recall that Gardner Minshew was the starter for the Colts in an OT victory last season in Baltimore. He completed 27 passes on 44 attempts.
I'll take the game total under and look at some player props that the Raiders should hit while playing catchup in the second half.
Props:
- The Ravens ranked second in the NFL in targets to WRs per game in 2023. 10 of the last 13 WRs have gone over their receptions prop versus Baltimore.
- The Ravens' first-team defense allowed 240-plus yards to 5 of the last 7 QBs they have faced.
- The Ravens run defense since Week 6 of the 2023 season. Seven of the last ten RBs they have faced have rushed for 55-plus yards.
- Rashod Bateman went UNDER his projected receiving yards total in 12 out of 19 games since the start of last season. He’s gone over 40 yards twice over that span.
- Justice Hill has gone OVER his receiving yards prop in seven of his last 10 games played.
- Gardner Minshew completed 25 passes for 257 yards in Week 1. His BP projection has him slated for 21.4 completions, which is well ahead of his 19.5 completions line. The Raiders are littered with playmakers and OC Luke Getsy is designing this offense for Minshew to deal/distribute. Minshew posted the league's lowest aDOT (4.7) in Week 1 to go with a 76% completion rate. The Raiders also posted the fifth-highest PROE in Week 1.
- Jakobi Meyers was efficient in Week 1, catching all three of his targets for 61 yards (9% target share), including 21 yards after the catch (YAC). He ran a ton of routes (88%) but was not heavily targeted on a per-route basis. However, he did see the first target in the game (catch for 9 yards) before picking up his next two receptions in the fourth quarter. Meyers is just too involved in this offense not to go over the lowly 2.5 receptions line in a game where the Raiders will likely be throwing in the second half. Baltimore allowed an average of 23 completions per game at home in 2023.
My Picks: