Rockets vs. Kings ATS Pick for 2/6 (Sports Betting)
Even with all the excitement of Thursdayâs trade deadline, the real fun lies in Californiaâs capital for Wednesday nightâs game between the Kings and Rockets.
Current Form
Rockets
Houston limps into tonightâs matchup in desperate need of the All-Star break. Every day it seems like someone new gets hurt. First, it was Chris Paul, then Clint Capela, and now Eric Gordon is dealing with knee soreness. However, both Paul and Gordon are expected to play through their injuries tonight. Despite the rash of injuries, the Rockets remain in the playoff race thanks to James Hardenâs outstanding play. The MVP candidate is currently averaging a jaw-dropping 36.5 points to go along with 8.0 assists and 6.8 rebounds per game. This will be the Rocketsâ fourth game in six days and the final game of a four-game road trip. Houston will play on one dayâs rest (19-13 in such situations).
Kings
Midway through a crucial six-game homestand, Sacramento will look to continue its 3-0 run on Wednesday night. While DeâAaron Fox and Buddy Hield continue to lead the steadily improving team, Harry Giles and Marvin Bagleyâs progress have highlighted the homestand. Giles had a career-high 20 points on 10-of-12 shooting against the Hawks. Additionally, Bagley is averaging 16.6 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks over his last five games. The Kings could be a scary team down the stretch if these two keep improving. Sacramento is 19-9 on one dayâs rest.
Edge: Kings
Playing their fourth game in six days, fatigue will set in for the Rockets. The extended minutes Houstonâs healthy players have logged due to injuries will finally catch up to them in the road tripâs final game. The Kings are at full strength, riding a winning streak, and playing on ideal rest.
Statistical Breakdown
Rockets
The leading force behind the NBAâs analytical revolution, Houstonâs offense is generated through three-point shots and free throws. The Rockets lead the NBA in three-pointers attempted per game (44.3) and percent of points from beyond the arc (40.7). Just for reference, the Bucks attempt the second-most threes per game, and they still shoot seven fewer per game. Houston is fourth in free-throws attempted per game (25.9) and third in percentage of points from free throws (17.9). Conversely, the Rockets rank dead last in percentage of points from mid-range (3.4).
Due to injuries, Harden has handled a Herculean workload. He has the highest player usage in the league (39%) and is playing an NBA-high 37.5 minutes per game. Essentially a one-man offensive show, Houston is forced to play at the leagueâs fourth-slowest pace (98.01). Chris Paulâs return will help ease the burden thatâs been bestowed on Hardenâs shoulders.
Defensively, the Rocketsâ biggest strength is their ability to guard the three-point line. With a roster comprised of wings and mobile big men, Houston has no problem defending the perimeter. The Rockets rank third in opponent three-point percentage (33.8) and second in opposing points from three-pointers (29.5). Houston has also done a decent job of defending in transition, ranking 11th in opponent fast-break points per game (13.1).
Kings
Possessing the leagueâs fastest player (Fox) as the catalyst, the Kings love to run and gun. With fresh legs, Sacramentoâs youthful roster is perfectly suited to play an up-tempo pace. The Kings play at the leagueâs second-fastest pace (104.08) and are fourth in possessions per game (106.7). Sacramento also ranks first in both fast-break points per game (21.5) and percentage of points from fast breaks (18.9).
On the defensive end, the Kings do an excellent job of defending three-point shots and scoring off turnovers. Sacramento is seventh in opponent three-point percentage (34.3) and fifth in opponent turnovers per possession (15.6%). The Kingsâ ability to force turnovers fuels their offensive attack. Sacramento ranks second in points off turnovers per game (20.3) and third in percentage of points off turnovers (17.9).
Edge: Kings
The Rockets are currently running on fumes, so a matchup with the fast-paced Kings couldnât have come at a worse time. Sacramentoâs speed will disrupt Hardenâs inclination to save his energy and play at a deliberate pace. This will also affect Paul, who recently returned from a hamstring injury. Furthermore, Houstonâs fatigue is evident in the way its transitional defense has slipped. Over the last three games, the Rockets have gone from giving up 13.1 fast-break points a game to 18.3. Poor transition defense is a recipe for disaster against the Kings. Additionally, the Kings do a good job of defending the Rocketsâ biggest strength (three-pointers).
Line Analysis
The line for this matchup opened at -2 Houston. The Rockets have received 71% of the public betting action placed on the spread, and the line has shifted up to -3.5. Thus far, the sharp bettors have shown little resistance to the line moving in Houstonâs favor. Containing two superstars, the Rockets remain one of the betting publicâs favorite teams. I expect them to keep hammering Houstonâs line.
Edge: Kings
This line serves as a perfect opportunity to fade the public. The public action backing Houston should only increase throughout the day. Subsequently, there will be a prime opportunity to grab Sacramentoâs points at its peak later in the day.
Verdict: Kings
The Kings are healthier, better rested, and will play a fast-paced style of basketball that will tire the road-weary Rockets. Take the Kings at +3.5 in a game they have a great chance of winning outright.
All stats courtesy of TeamRankings.com and NBA.com.