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Rose Bowl Game: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Odds and Game Pick (2021)

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The first of the two College Football Playoff semifinal games on New Year’s Day will be played as the prestigious Rose Bowl Game, despite an unusual location. After coming up one game short of an ACC conference championship, Notre Dame will look to get back to their winning ways against unbeaten SEC champion Alabama. Aside from a Rose Bowl win for the record books, a spot in the 2021 National Championship Game also awaits the winner. It may be a playoff game, but the betting odds have declared Alabama as a massive favorite ahead of this matchup.

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Details

  • Opening Lines: Alabama -17; O/U 65.5
  • Current ATS Line: Alabama -19.5
  • Current Over/Under: 65.5
  • Location: AT&T Stadium – Arlington, TX
  • Date: Friday, Jan. 1, 2021
  • Start Time: 4 p.m. EST
  • Television: ESPN
  • Last Meeting: January 7, 2013 – Alabama defeated Notre Dame 42-14 in the BCS National Championship Game in Miami.

Overview

Many analysts were of the opinion that Notre Dame was fortunate to maintain a spot in the College Football Playoff following a blowout loss in the ACC Championship Game against Clemson. It took overtime for the Fighting Irish to beat Clemson in the regular season, a game in which the Tigers were without their starting quarterback and several mainstays on the defensive side of the ball as well. Nonetheless, Brian Kelly’s Notre Dame squad has passed every other test thrown at them this season, playing as a full member of the ACC. QB Ian Book grew in leaps and bounds throughout the year, and the Irish offensive line is capable of matching up against any other front in the country. Dictating the line of scrimmage figures to be key for Notre Dame to hang around in the Rose Bowl as nearly a three-TD underdog.

The betting market is paying Nick Saban and Alabama a whole lot of respect ahead of this CFP semifinal and for good reason. Despite being massive favorites in the vast majority of games this year, Alabama had a winning record ATS and dismantled their SEC competition on a weekly basis. Aside from a six-point win over Florida in an SEC Championship Game shootout, Alabama’s smallest margin of victory all year was a 15-point road win over Ole Miss. And that’s on domination!

The Crimson Tide represent half of the four finalists for the Heisman Trophy, with both quarterback Mac Jones and wide receiver DeVonta Smith on the ballot. Just this week, Smith became the first WR to win the AP Player of the Year Award. Running back Najee Harris represents the ground portion of an Alabama offensive attack that averaged 49.7 points per game on the season, along with a ridiculously efficient 10.9 yards per point. Harris could be leaned on heavily in the Rose Bowl in an effort to expose a Notre Dame defensive front that comes in dealing with a handful of injury concerns.

Trends

  1. Notre Dame 2020 Betting Trends: 5-6 ATS; 6-5 to the Over
  2. Alabama 2020 Betting Trends: 8-3 ATS; 7-4 to the Over
  3. Notre Dame is 0-8 outright and 1-7 ATS in their last eight New Year’s Six-caliber bowl games.
  4. Alabama is 7-4 outright but just 4-7 ATS in their last 11 bowl games.
  5. Favorites have gone 10-3 straight up and 8-5 ATS in the last 13 Rose Bowl games.

Line Movement

*Line movement analysis based on the DonBest Las Vegas betting market ticker*

If you thought that the opening point spread of Alabama -17 was too large, think again. The betting market has bet the Tide up to as high as a 20.5-point favorite for this College Football Playoff matchup before Notre Dame was finally able to attract some buy-back dollars to put the line at the current Alabama -19.5. But don’t worry everyone, the CFP committee definitely got the top four teams right!

Looking at the total market for the Rose Bowl, we’ve seen very limited betting action. The betting market hasn’t strayed far from the opening line of 65.5, which also happens to be the current number. This figures to be mostly due to injury concerns on both teams that caused the total to be posted late. Keep an eye on the injury reports before kickoff, most notably the status of Crimson Tide receiver Jaylen Waddle.

Prediction

I hate to say it, but I believe Notre Dame is set to be exposed on New Year’s Day. I don’t envision the Notre Dame secondary being able to contain Mac Jones and the elite Crimson Tide receivers. If the Irish defensive front is indeed hampered by injuries, stopping Najee Harris will become just as big of a problem.

The fact that sharps have laid points at will with Alabama despite the massive point spread says a lot. This game is a mismatch in a lot of ways. Unless the Irish can trade scores, things figure to get ugly quick. The Crimson Tide will cruise into the College Football Playoff National Championship Game. While the Alabama moneyline offers minimal return alone, it can easily be included in a parlay with some of the other New Year’s Day bowl games. 

Pick: Alabama -19.5 (-112 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.