Saint Mary’s vs. Vanderbilt: 2025 NCAA Tournament Odds & Picks

by BettingPros Staff |
Mar 16, 2025

The 2025 NCAA Tournament is officially here! The March Madness Bracket is set, and first-round NCAA Tournament matchups are in place. It’s time to make your picks and predictions for the first round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament! We’re here to help as we’ll have picks and predictions for each of the first-round 2025 NCAA Tournament games. Here are our top picks and predictions for Saint Mary’s vs. Vanderbilt.

2025 NCAA Tournament Odds & Picks: Saint Mary’s vs. Vanderbilt

Let’s dive into our top picks and predictions for this opening-round NCAA Tournament matchup.

2025 NCAA Tournament Preview: Saint Mary’s vs. Vanderbilt

Saint Mary’s 2025 NCAA Tournament Preview

Saint Mary's enters the tournament with one of head coach Randy Bennett's best squads in his 24-year tenure, and the Gaels are capable of a deep run. They just have to actually have one. Bennett's squad hasn’t made the Sweet 16 since 2010, and that's as far as they got. The similar profiles, per BartTorvik, have nine teams that also have only peaked at the Sweet 16, with a handful of first-round exits.

For the Gaels to make a deep run, they'll have to lean on WCC Player of the Year Augustas Marciulionis. The 6-4 senior guard is one of the best facilitators in the country while leading the team in scoring. Mitchell Saxen is his running mate down low and is one of the best defenders in the country. Saxen also has the 11th-highest offensive rebound rate among DI players, and there is most of your offense.

Saint Mary's sub-50th-ranked offensive efficiency metrics are concerning, but the Gaels make up for it by taking care of the ball and having a 40% OReb rate, the second highest in the nation. These metrics give them the fifth-highest field goal rate in DI hoops.

Saint Mary’s can also just lean on its defense. The Gaels allow the second-lowest three-point attempt rate while limiting opponents to the lowest second-chance conversion percentage in the nation. This team actually had reverse splits, ranking 13th in away and neutral court games, with even better defense in those contests. The Gaels seem built for neutral-court tournament games.

Looking at this team on paper, it's easy to trust their tournament chances. But recent history makes me wary of Saint Mary’s ability to succeed in March, and the Gaels don't exactly have any impressive wins on their resume outside of the conference. The Gaels feel like a team that most would be willing to get burned by, but it won't be a surprise if Randy Bennett finally ends his drought of not reaching a Sweet Sixteen.

Vanderbilt 2025 NCAA Tournament Preview

The Commodores enter March Madness as a high-scoring team with explosive potential. Averaging nearly 80 points per game, they rely on a fast-paced offense led by Jason Edwards (17.0 PPG). Vanderbilt's ability to generate points quickly, especially in transition, makes them dangerous in high-pressure tournament games where momentum can shift rapidly.

However, their defense could be a concern. They rank outside the top-80 in defensive efficiency, struggling with perimeter defense (337th in the league) and rebounding. In a tournament setting, this could be problematic, especially against more disciplined teams that capitalize on defensive lapses. But what Vanderbilt does well is force turnovers and allow limited second-chance looks. Shot Volume is aggressively on their side with the sixth-lowest field goal rate allowed. So even though they have an inefficient defense, especially from deep, luck is on their side.

Vandy also played quite well in non-conference play. Despite a 343rd SOS outside the SEC, they still won all the games they were supposed to, only dropping to Drake. It's easy to see that the easier strength of schedule bolstered their metrics, so there is an aspect of them that will probably play worse than expected based on their early season boost.

2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Saint Mary’s vs. Vanderbilt

The Vanderbilt Commodores finished the SEC with an 8-10 record and 20-12 overall record. Ultimately, Vanderbilt earned many intriguing Quad 1 wins, including those against Tennessee, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Missouri. But this team also lost three quad two games by double-digits. You get a mixed bag with the Commodores. Vanderbilt has allowed teams to shoot a 52.9% effective field goal percentage and has allowed teams to block them more than 11% of the time. On the other hand, Saint Mary's has done well limiting turnovers. They've also dominated the offensive glass, earning 40.5% of offensive rebounds per game. That'll be needed since the Gaels hit 32.6% from three and 51.8% from inside the arc. Still, against Vanderbilt, opponents have dropped 36.9% from downtown and have added a super high FTA/FGA ratio. St. Mary's has the edge.

2025 NCAA Tournament Picks: Saint Mary’s vs. Vanderbilt

Saint Mary’s -3.5 (-110)

Check out all of our 2025 NCAA Tournament Bracket & Betting Coverage >>

2025 NCAA Tournament Sports Betting Picks

For those looking to place bets on the matchups, let's take a look at the early odds and picks for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

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