Saints vs. Browns NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 11)
Introducing the Week 1 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 1 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Saints vs. Browns.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 11 Betting Primer>>
Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints
Sides:
- The Saints have covered the spread in six of their last 12 games.
- The Saints have covered the spread in seven of their last 11 games as road underdogs.
- Their opponents have scored first in eight of the Saints’ last 12 games against AFC opponents.
- The Saints have lost seven of their last eight games.
- The Saints have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games.
- The Saints are 3-6 ATS as home underdogs (8-14 on the money line as underdogs)
- As home underdogs, the Saints are 2-7 straight up. Woof.
- The Saints are 2-6 ATS as road favorites.
- The Saints have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 home games against AFC opponents.
- The Browns have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 11 games.
- The Browns have lost nine of their last 11 games.
- The Browns have won eight of their last 12 games as favorites and 9-5 as a favorite.
- The Browns are 6-9-1 ATS in their last 15 road appearances as underdogs and 5-3 as home underdogs.
- The Browns have covered the spread in seven of their last 11 home games.
- Cleveland is 9-5 on the ML at home.
- The Browns have won four of their last five home games against teams with a winning record.
- The Browns have covered the spread in six of their last eight home games against teams with winning records.
Totals:
- Seven of the Saints’ last 13 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- The Saints are 3-2 toward the over at home (48.4 points per game).
- The Saints have the ninth-best red-zone defense in the NFL (48% conversion rate) – but it’s been getting worse every week.
- Six of the Browns’ last eight games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Seven of the Browns' last 13 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Ten of the Browns' last 17 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Eleven of the Browns' last 14 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
- The Browns are 14-12-1 toward the over in their last 27 games.
- Cleveland has finished under their team total in every game this season (except for Week 8).
- The Browns are 2-3 toward the over at home (Under 42 points per game).
- Since the start of 2023, the Browns are 10-4 toward the under at home.
Overall:
Given the moving parts of both teams, it's hard to rely too much on overall trends. But my initial lean is taking the Browns to win as slight road underdogs. Derek Carr remains one of the least profitable quarterbacks to bet on as a favorite (36% ATS).
The Cleveland Browns’ defense is lightyears ahead of the Atlanta Falcons, and the dead-cat bounce impact of new Saints interim head coach Dan Rizzi tends to fizzle out after another week.
Even in a losing effort at home against the Chargers, so much of that production came on blown assignments. The Chargers were also blanked in the second half with four punts and a missed field goal.
Cleveland's defense has shown up against the likes of the Eagles, Bengals, and Ravens, so I think they can slow down a barren Saints offense absent of supreme talent to come away with a road upset. Remember, Carr can be effective when he is not under pressure. Atlanta can't generate any pressure.
The Browns, led by Myles Garrett, will be pinning their ears to get after Carr. According to Next Gen Stats, Myles Garrett has recorded a league-high 26 quick pressures this season, including the 2nd-quickest pass rush get-off time (0.70 seconds) among players with at least 150 pass rushes. Garrett has also recorded a 21.5% pressure rate this season, the 2nd-highest in the NFL.
Offensively, I also see an advantage for Jameis Winston and the Browns offense. It's a revenge game for Winston, although this profiles as a classic throwback Nick Chubb 100-yard rushing performance. Fresh off the bye week, he should be effective against the Saints’ atrocious run defense that ranks 31st in EPA/rush and sixth in rushing yards allowed per game.
The Saints’ defense has allowed a league-high 5.4 yards per carry on designed rushes outside the tackles this season, having contacted opposing rushers behind the line of scrimmage on just 39.2% of such carries (2nd-lowest rate). The Browns’ offense has averaged 4.7 yards per carry on designed rushes outside the tackles this season (13th).
Props:
Chubb has 15-plus carries in two straight games against two of the league's best run defenses. This is by far his best matchup to date.
With all the injuries to the Saints WRs, Taysom Hill has taken on a bigger role as a receiver. He has at least 21 yards in three straight games. He also should have had a much bigger stat line last week if his 88-yard TD had not been called back for a penalty.
Take the over.
Speaking of over streaks - Cedric Tillman. Over. 75-plus yards in three straight games.
My Picks: