Saints vs. Falcons NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 10)

Introducing the Week 10 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 10 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Saints vs. Falcons.

Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 10 Betting Primer>>

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

Sides:

• The Saints have covered the spread in five of their last 11 games.
• The Saints have covered the spread in seven of their last 11 games as road underdogs.
• Their opponents have scored first in eight of the Saints' last 12 games against AFC opponents.
• The Saints have lost their last seven games.
• The Saints have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games.
• The Saints are 2-6 ATS as home underdogs (7-14 on the money line as underdogs)
• As home underdogs, the Saints are 1-7 straight up. Woof.
• The Saints are 2-6 ATS as road favorites.
• The Falcons are 5-3 ATS in their last eight home games as underdogs and 10-5 as home favorites on the money line.
• The Falcons are 10-14-2 ATS since the start of 2023. They are better at home, finishing at 8-6 straight up.
• The underdogs have won 11 of the Falcons' last 21 games.
• The Falcons are 5-5 ATS on the road, 3-4 ATS as road favorites, and 6-12 ATS on the road straight up.
• The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 12 games as favorites against NFC opponents.
• The Falcons have won six of their last eight games.
• Atlanta is 10-5 on the money line as home favorites (15-9 at home overall).
• The Falcons, as a home favorite, are 6-9 ATS.
• The Falcons have won seven of their last eight games against teams that held a winning record.

Totals:

• Seven of the Saints' last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line.
• The Saints are 3-1 toward the over at home (51.3 points per game).
• The Saints have the ninth-best red-zone defense in the NFL (50% conversion rate) - but it's been getting worse every week.
• The Falcons are 4-5 O/U this season.
• Five of the Falcons' last nine home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Atlanta is 2-1 O/U on the road this season, with games averaging 50.5 points.
• At home, they are 2-4 O/U, averaging fewer than 46 points per game.
• Four of the Falcons' last six games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

As home underdogs, the Saints are 1-7 straight up. The Saints are 2-6 ATS as home underdogs (7-14 on the money line as underdogs) Woof.

It's not a ringing endorsement for a team that just fired their head coach in the typical dead-cat bounce spot.

Case in point, there's usually a reason why New Orleans doesn't perform well as an underdog, even at home: they just aren't any good. The majority of those spreads were in the +2.5-4 range, which is exactly what is presented here in Week 10.

Meanwhile, Atlanta is 3-4 ATS as a road favorite. This season, Atlanta is a perfect 3-0 ATS and straight up in their road contests (twice as favorites).

If this was the normal Dennis Allen-led Saints, I think this would be an easy spot to go back to Atlanta.

But the coach firing is a difficult factor to consider given that we see bad teams rise up after these things happen.

We also saw these teams play in Atlanta not long ago, with New Orleans outgaining the Falcons. But this was a bizarre game because both of the Falcons TDs came on special teams/defense with their only offensive TD coming back on a penalty. So, the counting stats were not there for Atlanta.

Now the Saints team is different than the one that covered 2.5-point spread. Rashid Shaheed in on IR and Chris Olave seems destined to miss with another concussion.

The Saints have a real issue with their passing game, as they can't move the ball downfield with their current WR setup.

And New Orleans’s defense will have its own issues trying to stop this high-flying Falcons offense.

Keep in mind that they didn't just lose their head coach, they also lost their defensive play caller with Allen getting canned. Cornerback Marson Lattimore was also traded putting this defense in even worse shape.

Given this is a divisional game after a head coach firing, there's bound to be some variance in this matchup. I lean toward the under on the game total at 46.5, given New Orleans' ability to play some inspired football in the post-Allen era.

Note that the Falcons have a -7% pass rate over expectation in the last four weeks. If Atlanta controls this game, they can simply run the ball. They need to be pushed into a more aggressive mindset by the Saints, which I don't think is very likely.

This total closed at 41 back in Week 5 (went over at 50 points).

I'd rather just avoid the sides altogether, given the dead-cat bounce expectation from the Saints playing at home. That being said, I'd take my chances with NO if forced to pick ATS. Terrell Furman likes the Saints +3.5, as discussed on this week's BettingPros Week 10 Best Bets podcast.

Teams are now 17-22 straight up after firing their head coach and 23-16 ATS (59%). Atlanta will likely win, but I'm terrified it will be by just a last-minute field goal, which is exactly what happened the last time these teams faced off.

Props:

Every running back the Falcons have faced has gone OVER their rushing yardage prop this season (70-plus yards in all but one game).

Derek Carr's completion projection is 21 in this game. He has at least 18 completions in his last two games and soared over this number to 28 completions the last time he faced Atlanta. I expect plenty of RB/TE dump-offs with so many WR injuries the Saints are dealing with.

My Picks:

• Under 46.5
• Saints +3.5
• Derek Carr over 18.5 completions
• Alvin Kamara over 69.5 rushing yards