Saints vs. Patriots: NFL Week 5 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets
I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering - I know that I am for the first time now that my state has legalized wagering - this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Saints vs. Patriots.
NFL Betting Primer: Saints vs. Patriots
New England Patriots (NE +1) vs. New Orleans Saints
Nothing frustrates me more than parsing through two dysfunctional teams set to face off against each other after horrible performances. Last week, it was Broncos-Bears. This week, it's Saints against my Patriots. Woof.
First off, take the under. It's still at a decent number, settling at 40 points, down from 42 points at the open. The Patriots are 4-0 toward the under this season. The Saints are 4-0 toward the under this season.
Sides. The books are throwing their hands up because you can get both teams at +1, depending on where you shop. It's essentially a pick 'em. And I ultimately side with the Patriots. They are playing at home and have been better overall through four games than the Saints. Obviously, the recent bias of the Cowboys game has suppressed any excitement around the Patriots, but don't forget they played well at home versus the Dolphins/Eagles. The Patriots entered the season with the league's toughest schedule. They are 1-3. The Saints entered the season with the league's easiest schedule. They are 2-2.
The Patriots tend to get smoked when they play top-tier QBs, but they absolutely ruin the days for bad QBs. And despite the contract Derek Carr signed this offseason, he has been straight-up bad through four games. He is 28th in PFF passing grade to Mac Jones' 29th ranking, 27th in yards per attempt to Jones' 27th-ranked yards per attempt. Passing grade from a clean pocket? 32nd out of 35 qualifying QBs. Woof.
So, despite the injuries to Matt Judon and Christian Gonzalez, Carr is going to find a way to struggle in this game as he has done all year. They rank 32nd in red zone scoring rate.
As for the Patriots, their OL has been a big issue for their offense. Both in the run game and pass game. Hopefully, they get Cole Strange back in the starting lineup.
Luckily, the Saints have not been able to generate much pressure. They rank 22nd in pressure rate. It's by far the lightest pass rush they have faced this season. They are a tough team to run on, so it's likely to be tough sledding for the Patriots RBs.
But the Pats passing game should bounce back if Jones gets time in the pocket. Think they can do it enough to gut out a home win (or at least a one-point loss).
As props, take the under on JuJu Smith-Schuster. His routes have dropped in four straight games. He played played fewer than 50% of the snaps in Week 4. He has finished under his projected receiving yards total in every single game this season.
Smith-Schuster also has generated the league’s 6th-worst passer rating when targeted this season. Great signing, Bill!
My Picks:
- Under 40.5 (-120 FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Patriots +1/ML (-115 FanDuel Sportsbook)
My Props:
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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