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San Diego State vs. UConn: Best NCAA Tournament Bets & Picks

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The National Championship is here. It may be April, but the Madness continues as we are left with a No. 4 and No. 5 seed vying for the title Monday night. Let’s take a look at our top picks and predictions for Monday’s NCAA Tournament National Championship Game between San Diego State and UConn.

Best NCAA Tournament Bets & Picks: San Diego State vs. UConn

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NCAA Tournament National Championship Player Prop Bet Picks

Matt Bradley to Win Most Outstanding Player (+1000)

We want to cover ourselves with some wager on San Diego State if the underdog Aztecs win the championship. There is not much better out there while predicting an Aztec victory than Matt Bradley’s +1000 MOP odds.

Bradley led the team in scoring the last two seasons and is the only Aztec player this year averaging double figures (12.7 points per game). The First Team All-Mountain West guard entered the Sweet 16 matchup against Alabama 11th in scoring among all active players. He scored six points against the Crimson Tide after being limited to just 19 minutes because of early foul trouble. He followed up a poor two-point performance in the Elite Eight against Creighton with a team-high 21 points in the biggest game of the year against Florida Atlantic. Bradley was 5-of-12 from the field but was assertive in his drives and got to the foul line nine times, the most free throws he attempted all season.

UConn’s defensive philosophy plays right into what San Diego State is comfortable with offensively. UConn is elite in rim protection (eighth in near-proximity field goal percentage allowed, per Haslametrics), while the Aztecs shoot mid-range jumpers at a top-15 rate nationally.

If San Diego State does pull the upset, Bradley will likely be a big reason why, which makes his +1000 MOP odds more enticing than San Diego State’s +290 moneyline odds.

Other Player Prop Bet Picks:

San Diego State

Prop Odds Units To Win Book
Matt Bradley Under 18.5 PRAs -115 1.15 1 UB

UConn

Prop Odds Units To Win Book
Adama Sanogo Under 8.5 Rebounds -135 1.35 1 FD

For the rest of my prop bets and all of my player projections, check out my premium projections and picks article for the game >>

Game Picks

History is working against the Aztecs in this matchup. Per ESPN Stats & Info, this was the third time in the previous 70 years that three teams were making their Final Four debuts, but none of those teams cut down the nets. Meanwhile, UConn is 4-0 in national championships, and the Huskies are 15-0 SU and 14-1 ATS against non-conference opponents this year. However, if you know our betting style, we never turn down a contrarian play, especially in high-exposure matchups like this. Given that UConn has already gone from -6 to -7.5 in less than 12 hours, it is safe to say most of the money will be on the Huskies come Monday.

Further influencing the general public’s thoughts on this game is that UConn never trailed in its dominant victory over Miami. At the same time, San Diego State had not led FAU from the 7:26 mark in the first half until Lamont Butler’s buzzer-beater with no time remaining (the first buzzer-beater in a National Semifinal when his team was trailing before the shot, per Sportsnet Stats). However, unlike other teams that have wilted when UConn has raced out to a big lead, San Diego State entered yesterday with the third-best record in Division I (7-2) when trailing at halftime, and has now won six consecutive games when trailing at the half. That speaks to the Aztecs’ composure and experience, as they are the 21st-most experienced team and ranked 40th in minutes continuity from a year ago (UConn ranks 113th and 248th in those categories, respectively).

Miami would have had a chance to make the game closer against UConn if not for shooting 8-of-23 at the rim. While much credit goes to the interior defense of Huskies centers Adama Sanogo and Donovan Clingan, San Diego State’s offense is not built to attack the rim with as much regularity, as it is more than happy to shoot mid-range jumpers (top 15 mid-range shot rate, per ShotQuality). In addition, the Aztecs are 22-0 when allowing less than 65 points, which physical teams like Providence, Creighton, and Seton Hall have done to the Huskies in conference play.

Pick: San Diego State +7.5

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