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Seahawks vs Broncos NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 1)

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Introducing the Week 1 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 1 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos.

Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 1 Betting Primer>>

Seattle (SEA) vs. Denver (DEN): SEA -5.5

Sides

  • Seattle is 7-2 as a favorite last nine games.
  • The favorites have won 13 of the Seahawks' last 15 games.
  • Seattle is 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games played (3-5 over the last seven games).
  • The Seahawks were 3-4-1 at home as favorites ATS.
  • The Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games as favorites.
  • The Broncos were 2-6 ATS on the road in 2023 (2-game losing streak).

Totals

  • Nine of the Broncos' last 13 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Four of the Seahawks’ last five games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall

Bo Nix will make his first NFL start on the road against the Seattle Seahawks, led by their new head coach, Mike Macdonald. Macdonald was hired after his Baltimore Ravens defense posted historic numbers in 2023. The expectation is that his Seahawks defense will be a large part of the team's identity in 2024. Improving the defense will go a long way for Seattle to bounce back after a down 2023 season, as there were moments where they had total defensive lapses (especially defending the run). Although Macdonald's scheme is complex for the new Seattle pieces to learn, I'm not confident this Broncos offense will be able to take full advantage of it. Seattle has made offseason moves to improve their personnel upfront by drafting Byron Murphy II and re-signing Leonard Williams.

I am also very skeptical that Denver’s poor pass rush unit (which had the fourth-worst pressure rate in 2023) can take advantage of Seattle’s question marks across the offensive line.

Fading rookie QBs in their first starts typically is a safe bet to make, as rookie QBs have a 16-35-1 record in openers, including a 0-7-1 mark the past five seasons per AP News. Macdonald's defense in Baltimore took care of business last year at home versus eventually 2024 offensive rookie of the year, C.J. Stroud, winning 25-9. Look for Seattle to break their 5-game streak of failing to cover the spread with a big win (and Macdonald's first) over the Broncos. Consider me skeptical that Nix's preseason performance will carry over into regular-season games.

Seattle has so much more talent than the Broncos… I don’t want to overthink this matchup.

Props

  • Denver allowed the most rushing yards per to RBs in 2023. Twelve of the last 15 RBs they faced went OVER their projected rushing totals last year. Expect a massive game for Kenneth Walker III, who has been talked up as a three-down workhorse this season.
  • The Broncos have one elite player on their defense. CB Patrick Surtain. If he locks up DK Metcalf, that should open the target floodgates for second-year WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Tyler Lockett and Noah Fant have also been missing extensive practice time with injuries the last few weeks, setting the stage for a massive Week 1 game for JSN. The last 10 WRs most comparable to JSN to face Denver have gone OVER their projected receiving totals per the BettingPros Prop Analyzer.

My Picks

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