SEC Tournament Championship Predictions: Sunday (Tennessee vs. Florida)
Today's the day. Selection Sunday. Christmas for those who are the die-hard college basketball fans. Thank you for following along all year. It's been a grind and a half, but four of my last five tournaments have been profitable and we hope to run it back. But before we get there, we have to finish the SEC Tournament.
As the NCAA Tournament currently projects, 13 different SEC teams are in the tournament, ranking the conference as one of the best in the KenPom era. Even No. 16 seed South Carolina got some heralded wins and might've been a tournament team if it was in the ACC.
The conference tournament has been a whirlwind but now we have made it to the Tennessee-Florida Championship matchup. One of the best matchups we could have asked for. These two teams could have a lot to play for, so let's get to it.
- NCAA College Basketball Odds
- NCAA College Basketball Player Props
- NCAA College Basketball Picks & Predictions
- NCAA College Basketball Matchups
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>
Sunday’s Best SEC Tournament College Basketball Picks: Tennessee vs. Florida
(Odds courtesy of BetMGM)
Tennessee vs. Florida
Location: Bridgestone Arena | Nashville, TN
Line: Florida -4.5 | Total: 142.5
This is the rubber match of the century, folks. A week after the New Year, Florida trumped Tennessee, keeping them under 50 points in a 73-43 victory. The Volunteers couldn't buy a bucket, going 4-of-29 (13.8%) and 8-of-27 (29.6%) inside the arc. They left 10 more points on the floor after going 60% from the charity stripe. But Tennessee would not be swept, fighting back in their February 1st matchup. It was Tennessee's defense that stepped up, holding Florida to just 14.8% from deep in a 64-44 dub.
Since those games, Florida has been deadly. The Gators rank second in the league, per Bart Torvik, going 11-1 to finish the year with the second-best offense in the league. Tennessee's defense has stepped back, ranking 27th in that time frame, allowing a high three-point attempt rate. On Haslametrics, Florida far outranks Tennessee in the momentum metric, 120th to 322nd. Todd Golden's squad also outranks the Vols in field goal rate, 21st to 49th.
The winner of this game may earn the final No. 1 seed. Both teams are playing in their third straight game with a lot on the line. Florida has been the better team in each, absolutely dominating Tennessee in the second half and winning from tip to buzzer against Mizzou. It's easy to go chalk but Florida is simply the better team and I don't trust Tennessee's offense to have three straight games of 1.10 points per position. Either way, expect this to be a lopsided result, so whatever side you bet, or perhaps go both sides, bet the alts.
Prediction: Florida 74, Tennessee 66
Best Bet: Florida -4.5 (-110)