SEC Tournament Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (3/14)

by Ryan Coleman |
Mar 14, 2025

The SEC Tournament has finally made it to the semi-finals, where the biggest teams in the league and the sport are. As the NCAA Tournament currently projects, 13 different SEC teams are in the tournament with the conference ranking as one of the best in the KenPom era.

Even No. 16 seed South Carolina got some heralded wins and might've been a tournament team if it was in the ACC. But the focus is on the top. Auburn finally gets going as the consensus favorite to win the SEC tournament at +155, followed close behind by Florida (+210), Alabama (+449) and Tennessee (+550).

Not only are these the top SEC teams but all four rank in the top six nationally, per KenPom. There's a decent chance your National Champion is in that group. Johni Broome is battling with Cooper Flagg for the John R. Wooden Award and Auburn is fighting Duke for title favorites but there is no question: The SEC is the best conference this year. Now, we get to watch these teams play for an SEC crown before we kick off March Madness.

In this article, we'll preview the semi-final games of the SEC tournament. Let's get to it.

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Friday’s Best SEC Tournament College Basketball Picks

Ole Miss vs. Auburn

Location: Bridgestone Arena | Nashville, TN
Line: Auburn -11.5 | Total: 154.5

After fending off Arkansas' second-half run with a last-second three by Sean Pedulla, Ole Miss lives to fight another day against No. 1 seed Auburn Tigers. These two faced off twice with Ole Miss dropping at home 92-82 in early February and 106-76 a few weeks back. It makes sense why the line is where it's at.

Auburn will attack with the best offense in the nation. They don't turn the ball over and they dominate the inside with a top-50 offensive rebounding clip, leading them to a top-10 field goal rate. Johni Broome anchors this team but any single player can go off at any given time whether it's Denver Jones, Chad Baker-Mazara, Tahaad Pettiford, Miles Kelly or Dylan Cardwell. On paper, this is the most talented team in the nation. To go with it, they rank 13th in defensive efficiency with a top-10 perimeter defense.

I simply don't see how Ole Miss is going to stop the Tigers after allowing over 90 points in both outings. This is in large part due to their lack of rebound ability, ranking outside the top 230 in both offensive and defensive rebound rates. They also foul at a high clip, which will give plenty of opportunity for the Auburn slashing guards and Broome to get to the charity stripe.

The only thing I may question here is Auburn's effort levels. They've essentially locked up the No. 1 overall seed, but given that they lost the last two regular season games, I imagine they have a chip on their shoulder to prove why they’re the league’s best team. Being a double-digit favorite is a lot, but I'm going to trust the best unit in the league and take the Auburn team total over.

Prediction: Auburn 85, Ole Miss 74
Best Bet: Auburn Team Total Over 83.5 Points (-105 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Texas vs. Tennessee

Location: Bridgestone Arena | Nashville, TN
Line: Tennessee -10.0 | Total: 135.5

Texas has been fighting for its life to make the NCAA Tournament but has pulled off two upsets to earn a battle against Tennessee. A double-overtime victory is what has gotten them here after an impressive double-digit scoring effort by six different Longhorns and going 44% from deep. Texas faced off against Tennessee once back in January, dropping the game 74-70 at home.

Now they go up against the best defense in the league. The Volunteers have pure effort running through their blood with the best near-proximity shooting defense, best second-chance conversion percentage defense and the second-best perimeter shooting defense.

Zakai Zeigler is a facilitating god but he also is a feisty defender backed by Igor Milicic and Felix Okpara down low. But Tennessee is known for its defense. It's their offense that has been a bit of a surprise.

Ranking 24th overall, Rick Barnes' squad is in this position to challenge for a No. 1 seed from their perimeter shooting and offensive rebounding rate. This gives them a top-50 field goal attempt rate with a 33rd-ranked mid-range percentage.

Texas will try to counter with their athleticism and perimeter shooting, which has shown its ability to get hot but I think fatigue will show its ugly head against Tennessee today. They are physical and won't allow anything free, which is going to be tough for a team playing in their third straight game after a double-overtime outing against another physical squad in Texas A&M.

It's tough laying so many points but it's hard to imagine Tennessee's defense doing anything but dominating here. The Vols should slow down this game and eliminate Texas.

Prediction: Tennessee 75, Texas 62
Best Bet: Tennessee -9.5 (-115 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Missouri vs. Florida

Location: Bridgestone Arena | Nashville, TN
Line: Florida -8.5 | Total: 160.5

For my SEC game of the day, we have Mizzou-Florida, which features two of my favorite teams to make a run in March. Missouri handled business against Mississippi State after finishing the game on a 33-18 run over the last 10 minutes of play. Missouri actually beat Florida in their only matchup of the year back in January, winning 83-82 in a thriller.

Missouri will come at you with their offense. Their field goal percentage ranks seventh in the nation and they get to the charity stripe at the highest clip in Division I (DI) hoops. Against Florida in January, they left a lot of points on the table, only making 18-0f-29 free throws. Caleb Grill can be an absolute sniper while Tamar Bates ranks highly with a 40.5% perimeter shooting percentage himself. Mark Mitchell gets to the charity stripe at will and they rank fourth in percent of their offense coming in the transition game.

But Florida's defense is almost as good as their offense. The Gators force opponents under 30% from deep while consistently limiting opponents to get second-chance opportunities. They've gotten some luck per ShotQuality, though. They rank 273rd in open three rate allowed - Missouri ranks 12th offensively - and the Gators’ defensive adjusted ShotQuality ranks 50th.

For me, Missouri playing yesterday helps build momentum rather than tires them out. They get to the charity stripe so much and rank 45th in bench minutes that the rotation can get involved every which way. Dennis Gates has shown his ability to scheme against the Gators. It's a big spread but I expect Missouri to keep it close.

Prediction: Florida 82, Missouri 78
Best Bet: Missouri +8.5 (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Kentucky vs. Alabama

Location: Bridgestone Arena | Nashville, TN
Line: Alabama -5.5 | Total: 179.5

Kentucky fought off a late Oklahoma surge to earn their spot in the quarter-finals with a last-second bucket from end-to-end by Otega Oweh. It truly was a spectacular game and now we get another treat tonight with Kentucky-Alabama. The first time these two teams faced off against one another almost 200 points were scored in Kentucky while the Wildcats dropped the second by double-digits in Tuscaloosa. Tonight should be a treat.

Both teams rank inside the top 30 in pace of play with a top-50 bench minutes rate. Lamont Butler might miss today's game, which is a detriment to their defense. Alabama has shown no mercy with its scoring ability, putting up 94 against Florida and 91 on the road at Auburn (it was in overtime but still 1.13 points per possession). The thing is, anytime any team gets in a slump, it's an easy point to live bet the over because both teams can go on runs at any time.

Alabama's rim and three rate is 13th-highest in the nation and their ShotQuality defense is 68th. In conference play, their defensive efficiency plummeted. Despite Kentucky's playing much better at home, a game under their belt in Bridgestone Arena will only help their shooting feel and momentum.

They left points on the floor with missed free throws and open looks and will need to play on all cylinders to avenge their losses. I expect this to be one of the most entertaining games of the year and can’t wait to watch it. This number only continues rising, so go grab it before it gets over 180, which is what I’d play it to.

Prediction: Alabama 96, Kentucky 90
Best Bet: Over 179.5 Points (-105 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

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