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Senators vs. Penguins: NHL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Friday)

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We have a small two-game slate of hockey on Friday with a couple of good matchups. Here are my two best bets for Friday’s NHL slate. And below we dive into Senators vs. Penguins.

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Check out our other top picks for Friday:

Today’s Best NHL Bets: Senators vs. Penguins

Here are my favorite bets for Friday’s small slate.

Ottawa Senators (+135) @ Pittsburgh Penguins (-165) | O/U 6 (-137/+114)

Facing each other for the second time in three days, the Metropolitan Division’s Pittsburgh Penguins host the Atlantic Division’s Ottawa Senators. Wednesday’s matchup saw an abundance of goals scored early and often, a result likely to reoccur on Friday.

There have now been six or more total goals scored in eight of Pittsburgh’s last 12 games, a trend that is likely to continue with goaltender Casey DeSmith slated to start between the pipes once again for the Penguins as Tristan Jarry is still on IR with a lower-body injury.

It has been an underwhelming campaign for DeSmith, who is 6-9-3 with a .904 save percentage (SV%) and 3.21 goals against average (GAA). Based on his metrics, positive regression is unlikely for the Penguins’ netminder.

If he qualified, DeSmith would rank in the bottom half among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5. In front of DeSmith is a defense that strongly feels the absences of Kris Letang and Jeff Petry.

At 5-on-5, Pittsburgh ranks just 21st in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). The good news for this leaky blue line and DeSmith is that they should get plenty of goal support as the Penguins rank seventh in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5.

In a similar situation, at 5-on-5, Ottawa ranks just 17th in the league in xGA/60 but 10th in xGF/60. Projected to start in the crease for the Sens is goaltender Anton Forsberg, who is 8-9-2 with a .902 SV% and 3.25 GAA this season.

Forsberg enters this contest in especially poor form and possesses a troubling .806 SV% and 5.78 GAA over his last three starts. With two below-average defenses, two struggling goaltenders, and two strong offenses, six or more goals should not be difficult to come by once again.

Best Bet: Over 6.5 (-103 at SugarHouse)

Best of luck!

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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.