Sixers vs. Thunder ATS Pick for 2/28 (Sports Betting)
The Sixers continue life without Joel Embiid as they travel out west to take on the Thunder.
Current Form
Sixers
Even with three other stars on the team, the 76ers have felt Embiid’s absence. Despite going 2-1 in the three games he has missed since the All-Star break, Philadelphia hasn’t looked right. One of the wins was a five-point victory against a struggling Miami team, and the other was a narrow one-point win over the sinking Pelicans. The Sixers’ big-man depth is now further depleted with Boban Marjanovic (knee) also out. Philadelphia will play this game on two day’s rest (9-6 record in such situations).
Thunder
The Thunder are coming off two hard-fought losses to the Kings and Nuggets. In both games, OKC’s lack of execution did them in down the stretch. However, Paul George and Russell Westbrook continue to have remarkable seasons. George has emerged as a legitimate MVP candidate, and Westbrook is currently averaging a triple-double for the third straight season. The Thunder are 22-13 on one day’s rest.
Edge: Thunder
Despite coming in on a losing streak, the Thunder are still in better shape. OKC is the healthier side and is playing better basketball than the recent skid indicates. Additionally, the Thunder have one of the best records in the league when playing on one day’s rest.
Statistical Breakdown
Sixers
Even without Embiid, Philadelphia continues to utilize the free-throw line as a targeted source of offense. The Sixers are only averaging 0.8 less free-throw attempts per game without Embiid. For the season, Philadelphia ranks second in free-throws attempts per game (28), free throws made per game (21.6), and percentage of points from the foul line (18.7). This is expected with the team having four players (Embiid, Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, and Jimmy Butler) who rank in the top 44 in free-throws attempted per game.
However, the Sixers have missed Embiid’s ability to score efficiently in isolation. Without his easy buckets, the team’s offensive rating has plummeted from 111.8 to 105.4.
Embiid’s absence has resonated even more defensively. Since he’s one of the NBA’s top rim-protectors, Philadelphia has built its entire defense around funneling opposing players to Embiid near the basket. He ranks in the top five in defensive field-goal percentage (54.0) and seventh in blocks per game (1.94). Subsequently, the Sixers have gone from giving up 51 points in the paint per game to 68 without Embiid.
Thunder
The Thunder’s defense fuels their offense. Loaded with big, athletic, versatile defenders, OKC has a clear defensive identity. The Thunder are first in opponent turnovers per possession (16.2%) and first in opponent turnovers per game (17.5). Thus, it is not surprising that OKC ranks second in percentage of points off turnovers (18) and points off turnovers per game (23.7). Additionally, the Thunder are fifth in fast-break points per game (20) and fourth in percentage of points off fast breaks (16.1).
When OKC isn’t scoring off turnovers, George and Westbrook can be found slicing through opposing defenses and causing havoc in the paint. OKC is fourth in points in the paint per game (56.0). The Thunder’s inclination to attack the paint also results in a lot of opportunities from the charity stripe, as they rank fifth in free throws attempted per game (25.6).
With their point guard averaging over 11.3 rebounds a game, it is no surprise that OKC ranks as one of the league’s top rebounding teams. The Thunder are first in both total rebounds (57.2) and offensive rebounds (12.3) per game. Their dominance on the offensive glass has resulted in OKC scoring the second-most second-chance points per game (19.0).
Edge: Thunder
Even with Embiid in the lineup, Philadelphia has struggled against OKC. Having issues with the Thunder’s physicality, the Sixers have dropped 11 straight games to them. The Thunder are about to have a field day scoring in the paint with Amir Johnson, Jonah Bolden, and Justin Patton getting thrust into action.
OKC will take advantage of the Sixers on the offensive glass. In the last three games without Embiid, Philadelphia’s opponent offensive rebounding percentage has spiked from 21.8 to 27 percent. Lastly, The Thunder thrive in forcing turnovers against sloppy teams like the Sixers (27th in turnovers per game).
Line Analysis
The line for this game opened at -5.5 OKC. Despite Philadelphia receiving 66 percent of the public betting action, the line has moved up to -7.5. This type of heavy movement signals that the sharp bettors are siding with the Thunder. While OKC has fared well against the spread this year at 33-27, Philadelphia has struggled with a 28-33 record.
Edge: Thunder
The combination of the heavy backing from the sharps and the Thunder’s success against the spread grants them the clear edge.
Verdict: Thunder
Embiid’s absence from the lineup gives the Thunder a significant advantage down low. OKC will dominate the game in the paint and on the offensive boards. Additionally, Philadelphia’s turnover tendencies will be fatal against an elite defense. Side with the sharps and take OKC at -7.5 to cover on Thursday night.